Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are reshaping oceanic CO₂ uptake patterns. This study focuses on the crucial regions of the Arabian Sea, Red Sea, and Mediterranean Sea which are highly affected by human-caused climate change, aiming to unravel the complexities of air–sea CO₂ exchange dynamics. Understanding these processes is essential for predicting climate changes and assessing the health of marine ecosystems. In this context, a combination of observation-based data (Oc_v2020), and a multi-model ensemble of climate model simulations, were employed to explore the spatial and temporal variations in air–sea CO₂ flux (FCO₂) over these areas from 1982 to 2019. We implemented the Bayesian Model Averaging approach on the model outputs, resulting in a better representation of simulated CO₂ flux. Overall, climate models seem to underestimate the FCO₂ over the western Arabian Sea. We speculate that this model failure is attributed to the negative biased in vertical water velocity and the unrealistically representation of carbon release during coastal upwelling processes in the model. Our findings suggest that CO₂ source across the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the central region of the Mediterranean Sea has been reduced with a trend of − 0.494 ± 0.009, − 1.350 ± 0.001, and − 0.329 ± 0.074 gCm⁻² year⁻¹ decade⁻¹, respectively. In contrast, the CO₂ sink across the Western Mediterranean has been enhanced with a trend of − 0.793 ± 0.086 gCm⁻² year⁻¹ decade⁻¹. In general, change in the water temperature was recognized as the major contributor to the sea surface partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂). The exception was found in the Arabian Sea, where non-thermal effects play the major role. Our results show that the CO₂ flux variation is accompanied by regional changes in the sea surface pCO₂. Across the North Arabian Sea, FCO₂ is also correlated with the surface wind variability, which is likely due to the changes in wind-driven upwelling. In conclusion, our study advances the understanding of regional air–sea CO₂ exchange dynamics, emphasizing the need for improved model representation in areas with intense seasonal upwelling. The prominent changes in the Arabian Sea, underscore the immediate necessity for science-based management in this region to mitigate the impacts of human-induced global warming.

人为温室气体排放正在重塑海洋CO ₂吸收模式。本研究重点关注阿拉伯海、红海和地中海等受人为气候变化严重影响的关键区域，旨在揭示海气CO ₂交换动态的复杂性。了解这些过程对于预测气候变化和评估海洋生态系统的健康至关重要。在此背景下，结合观测数据 (Oc_v2020) 和气候模型模拟的多模型集合，探索这些地区的海气 CO ₂通量 (FCO ₂ ) 的时空变化1982 年至 2019 年。我们对模型输出实施了贝叶斯模型平均方法，从而更好地表示了模拟 CO ₂通量。总体而言，气候模型似乎低估了阿拉伯海西部的FCO ₂ 。我们推测该模型失败的原因是垂直水流速度的负偏差以及模型中沿海上升流过程中碳释放的不切实际的表示。我们的研究结果表明，红海、阿拉伯海和地中海中部地区的CO _{2来源已减少，趋势为- 0.494 ± 0.009、- 1.350 ± 0.001 和- 0.329 ± 0.074 gCm} ^-2 年分别为⁻¹ 十进制⁻¹。相比之下，整个西地中海的CO ₂汇有所增强，趋势为- 0.793 ± 0.086 gCm ^-2 年^-1 十年^-1。一般来说，水温的变化被认为是海面CO ₂分压(pCO ₂ )的主要贡献者。阿拉伯海是个例外，其中非热效应起着主要作用。我们的结果表明CO ₂通量的变化伴随着海面pCO ₂的区域变化。在北阿拉伯海，FCO ₂也与表面风的变化相关，这可能是由于风驱动的上升流的变化所致。总之，我们的研究增进了对区域海气 CO ₂交换动态的理解，强调需要改进季节性上升流强烈地区的模型表征。阿拉伯海的显着变化凸显了该地区迫切需要进行科学管理，以减轻人类引起的全球变暖的影响。