Immense retrofit efforts are needed to align the UK's existing residential stock with the country's Net Zero by 2050 target. A factor that could hinder the effectiveness of these retrofits is the rebound effect – estimated to range from 15 to 100 %, with recent studies showing energy savings associated with retrofits vanishing after four years. This paper introduces, for the first time, a novel tariff structure, based on Increasing Block Tariffs (IBTs), that aims to mitigate the rebound of energy retrofits and improve social equity within the UK's residential sector. The proposed tariff is linked to the energy efficiency of the dwelling in which a household resides as well as the household's size and income, whereby the tariff increases progressively as the household's income rises. The paper introduces an econometric model for the UK's existing residential stock covering the period 2017–2035. The results show that while a rebound of 14 %–54 % occurs under a conventional tariff, the proposed tariff reduces this to 0 %. For energy poverty, 21 % of UK households are considered ‘energy-poor’ under the conventional tariff in 2017, compared with 0 % throughout the modelling period under the proposed tariff. The research has important implications for policy makers in that it demonstrates how the energy efficiency levels required for a below 2 °C climate change trajectory can be achieved in a socially-just manner.

中文翻译：

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遏制经济反弹和能源贫困：英国住宅部门的新型关税结构

需要付出巨大的改造努力，使英国现有的住宅存量与该国到 2050 年实现净零排放的目标保持一致。可能阻碍这些改造有效性的一个因素是反弹效应——估计范围为 15% 至 100%，最近的研究表明，与改造相关的节能在四年后消失。本文首次介绍了一种基于增加集体关税（IBT）的新颖关税结构，旨在减轻能源改造的反弹并改善英国住宅部门的社会公平。拟议的电价与家庭居住的住宅的能源效率以及家庭的规模和收入挂钩，电价随着家庭收入的增加而逐步增加。本文介绍了 2017-2035 年英国现有住宅存量的计量经济模型。结果显示，虽然常规关税下出现了 14%–54% 的反弹，但拟议关税将其降至 0%。就能源贫困而言，2017 年传统电价下，21% 的英国家庭被视为“能源贫困”，而在拟议电价下，整个建模期间这一比例为 0%。该研究对政策制定者具有重要意义，因为它展示了如何以社会公正的方式实现将气候变化轨迹控制在 2°C 以下所需的能源效率水平。