Balancing burgeoning energy demands in the electricity sector while curbing carbon emissions poses a formidable challenge for emerging economies like Bangladesh, which is heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Despite the country's power system master plan (PSMP) until 2041 and submitted intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) to tackle mounting energy needs and associated emissions, the PSMP lacks specific emission reduction strategies. Thus, this study employs carbon emission pinch analysis to facilitate Bangladesh's long-term energy planning, highlighting emission reduction hurdles. This research aims to set emission limits, delineate fossil fuel and carbon-neutral source (i.e., zero emission during operation) compositions, ascertain carbon-neutral source ranges for targeted emissions, and propose viable carbon-neutral sources to meet escalating energy demands. Three scenarios are extensively explored: fulfilling INDC mandates, a 10% increase in renewable energy, and maintaining 2035 emission levels in 2040. The analysis unveils emission limits of 55 758.83 and 84 778.61 × 109 grams of CO2 equivalent for 2025 and 2030, respectively. Projections indicate a foreseen 10% surge in renewable energy by 2035, elevating its share to 18.16%. Carbon-neutral energy sources, encompassing solar, wind, hydroelectricity, biomass, and nuclear, are estimated to cover 56.06% of energy demand by 2040, driving a 33.30% emissions reduction.

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可持续能源的战略途径：孟加拉国电力部门的碳排放夹点分析

平衡电力部门不断增长的能源需求，同时遏制碳排放，对孟加拉国等严重依赖化石燃料的新兴经济体构成了巨大的挑战。尽管该国制定了到 2041 年的电力系统总体规划 (PSMP)，并提交了预期的国家自主贡献 (INDC) 来解决日益增长的能源需求和相关排放，但 PSMP 缺乏具体的减排战略。因此，本研究采用碳排放夹点分析来促进孟加拉国的长期能源规划，突出减排障碍。本研究旨在设定排放限值，界定化石燃料和碳中性来源（即运行期间零排放）成分，确定目标排放的碳中性来源范围，并提出可行的碳中性来源以满足不断增长的能源需求。广泛探讨了三种情景：履行国家自主贡献指令、可再生能源增加 10% 以及在 2040 年维持 2035 年的排放水平。分析揭示了 2025 年和 2030 年的排放限值分别为 55 758.83 和 84 778.61 × 109 克二氧化碳当量。预测显示，到 2035 年，可再生能源预计将增长 10%，所占份额升至 18.16%。预计到 2040 年，包括太阳能、风能、水力发电、生物质能和核能在内的碳中性能源将满足能源需求的 56.06%，推动减排 33.30%。