Meeting future demand for coffee under climate change is a challenge. Approaches that can inform where coffee may grow best under current and future climate scenarios are needed. Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora P.) is planted in many tropical areas and makes up around 40% of the world’s coffee supply. However, as the climate shifts, current robusta areas may become less productive, while in other areas new growing regions for robusta may emerge. Colombia is one of the world’s most important Arabica coffee producer, famous for its high-quality coffee. Although robusta coffee is not yet a commercial crop in Colombia, it could be one of the future bastions for robusta coffee in South America contributing to meeting the increasing demand, but this remains unexplored. We aimed to identify areas with highest biophysical and socio-economic potential to grow robusta coffee in Colombia. An integrated modelling approach was used, combining climate suitability and crop-yield modelling for current and future climate scenarios, soil constraints, pest risk assessment and socio-economic constraints to identify the regions with the highest potential productivity and the lowest pest and climate change risks with good market access and low security risks which don’t further expand the agricultural frontier. Our results showed that parts of the foothills along the eastern Andean Mountain ranges, the high plains of the Orinoquía region and the wet parts of the Caribbean region are the best candidates for the potential development of robusta coffee plantations in Colombia. The crop-yield model indicated highest yields of green coffee on the foothills of the eastern Andean Mountain range with an estimated average yield of 2.6 t ha⁻¹ (under rain-fed conditions) which is projected to occur at elevations below 600 m avoiding interference with the traditional and established Arabica coffee regions in Colombia. Under a 2 °C global warming scenario climate change is projected to have the largest impacts on the Caribbean region. Therefore, larger scale irrigated production system could be an appropriate option in the Caribbean region, while diversified smallholder robusta coffee agroforestry systems are considered more favourable in the Orinoquía region.

满足气候变化下未来对咖啡的需求是一项挑战。需要采取一些方法来告知咖啡在当前和未来的气候情景下哪里可能生长得最好。罗布斯塔咖啡 ( Coffea canephora P.) 种植在许多热带地区，约占世界咖啡供应量的 40%。然而，随着气候变化，现有的罗布斯塔咖啡种植区的生产力可能会降低，而在其他地区可能会出现新的罗布斯塔咖啡种植区。哥伦比亚是世界上最重要的阿拉比卡咖啡生产国之一，以其高品质咖啡而闻名。尽管罗布斯塔咖啡在哥伦比亚尚未成为商业作物，但它可能成为南美罗布斯塔咖啡未来的堡垒之一，有助于满足不断增长的需求，但这仍然尚未开发。我们的目标是确定哥伦比亚具有最高生物物理和社会经济潜力种植罗布斯塔咖啡的地区。采用综合建模方法，将当前和未来气候情景的气候适宜性和作物产量建模、土壤限制、有害生物风险评估和社会经济限制相结合，以确定潜在生产力最高、有害生物和气候变化风险最低的区域市场准入良好，安全风险低，不会进一步拓展农业前沿。我们的研究结果表明，安第斯山脉东部的山麓部分地区、奥里诺基亚地区的高原和加勒比海地区的湿润地区是哥伦比亚潜在发展罗布斯塔咖啡种植园的最佳候选地区。作物产量模型表明，安第斯山脉东部山麓的生咖啡产量最高，估计平均产量为 2.6 t ha ^-1（在雨养条件下），预计在海拔 600 m 以下以避免干扰与哥伦比亚传统和成熟的阿拉比卡咖啡产区合作。在全球变暖 2°C 的情景下，气候变化预计将对加勒比地区产生最大的影响。因此，大规模灌溉生产系统可能是加勒比地区的适当选择，而多样化的小农罗布斯塔咖啡农林复合系统被认为在奥里诺基亚地区更有利。