Combining the analysis of multiple diagnostics and well-chosen prior information in the framework of Bayesian probability theory, the Integrated Data Analysis code (IDA Fischer et al 2010 Fusion Sci. Technol. 58 675–84) can provide density and temperature radial profiles of fusion plasmas. These IDA-fitted measurements are then used for further analysis, such as discharge simulations and other experimental data analysis. Since IDA considers measurement data, which is frequently fragmentary, with statistical and systematic uncertainties, which are often difficult to quantify, from a heterogeneous set of diagnostics, the fitted profiles and their gradients may be in contradiction to well-established expectations from transport theory. Using the modeling suite ASTRA coupled with the quasi-linear transport solver TGLF, we have created a loop in which simulated profiles and their uncertainties are fed back into IDA as an additional prior, thus providing constraints about the physically reasonable parameter space. We apply this physics-motivated prior to several different plasma scenarios and find improved heat flux match, while still matching the experimental data. This work feeds into a broader effort to make IDA more robust against measurement uncertainties or lack of measurements by combining multiple transport solvers with different levels of complexity and computing costs in a multi-fidelity approach.

中文翻译：

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动力学模型支持的等离子体轮廓重建

综合数据分析代码 (IDA Fischer) 将贝叶斯概率论框架中的多重诊断分析和精心选择的先验信息相结合等人2010年融合科学。技术。 58675–84）可以提供聚变等离子体的密度和温度径向分布。这些 IDA 拟合测量结果随后用于进一步分析，例如放电模拟和其他实验数据分析。由于 IDA 考虑的测量数据通常是零散的，具有统计和系统不确定性，这些不确定性往往难以量化，来自一组异构的诊断，拟合的轮廓及其梯度可能与传输理论的既定期望相矛盾。使用建模套件 ASTRA 与准线性传输求解器 TGLF 相结合，我们创建了一个循环，其中模拟剖面及其不确定性作为附加先验反馈到 IDA，从而提供了有关物理合理参数空间的约束。我们将这种物理驱动的方法应用于几种不同的等离子体场景，并发现改进的热通量匹配，同时仍然匹配实验数据。这项工作通过在多保真方法中结合具有不同复杂程度和计算成本的多个传输求解器，为更广泛的努力提供了帮助，使 IDA 能够更加稳健地应对测量不确定性或缺乏测量的情况。