Humid heatwaves, characterized by high temperature and humidity combinations, challenge tropical societies. Extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TW) over tropical land are coupled to the warmest sea surface temperatures by atmospheric convection and wave dynamics. Here, we harness this coupling for seasonal forecasts of the annual maximum of daily maximum TW (TW_max). We develop a multiple linear regression model that explains 80% of variance in tropical mean TW_max and significant regional TW_max variances. The model considers warming trends and El Niño and Southern Oscillation indices. Looking ahead, the strong-to-very-strong El Niño at the end of 2023, with an Oceanic Niño Index of ∼2.0, suggests a 2024 tropical land mean TW_max of 26.2°C (25.9–26.4°C), and a 68% chance (24%–94%) of breaking existing records. This method also predicts regional TW_max in specific areas.

中文翻译：

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根据目前的 ENSO 状态提前几个月预测热带年度最高湿球温度

以高温和潮湿相结合为特征的潮湿热浪给热带社会带来了挑战。热带陆地上的极端湿球温度（TW）通过大气对流和波浪动力学与最温暖的海面温度耦合在一起。在这里，我们利用这种耦合对年度最大值和每日最大值 TW (TW _max ) 进行季节性预测。我们开发了一个多元线性回归模型，可以解释热带平均 TW _max的 80% 方差和显着的区域 TW _max方差。该模型考虑了变暖趋势以及厄尔尼诺现象和南方涛动指数。展望未来，2023 年底将出现强到极强的厄尔尼诺现象，海洋厄尔尼诺指数约为 2.0，表明 2024 年热带陆地平均 TW_最高温度为 26.2°C (25.9–26.4°C)，并且打破现有记录的可能性为 68% (24%–94%)。该方法还可以预测特定区域的区域 TW_最大值。