Estimation of the perturbation to the Earth's energy budget by contrail outbreaks is required for estimating the climate impact of aviation and verifying the climate benefits of proposed contrail avoidance strategies such as aircraft rerouting. Here we identified two successive large-scale contrail outbreaks developing in clear-sky conditions in geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite infrared images of Western Europe lasting from 22–23 June 2020. Their hourly cloud radiative effect, obtained using geostationary satellite cloud retrievals and radiative transfer calculations, is negative or weakly positive during daytime and positive during nighttime. The cumulative energy forcing of the two outbreaks is 7 PJ and −8.5 PJ, with uncertainties of 3 PJ, stemming each from approximately 15–20 flights over periods of 19 and 7 hr, respectively. This study suggests that an automated quantification of contrail outbreak radiative effect is possible, at least for contrails forming in clear sky conditions.

中文翻译：

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利用对地静止卫星观测和辐射传输计算估计西欧两次轨迹卷云爆发的辐射效应

需要估计轨迹爆发对地球能源预算的扰动，以估计航空对气候的影响，并验证拟议的轨迹避免策略（例如飞机改道）的气候效益。在这里，我们在西欧的对地静止和极轨卫星红外图像中识别出两次连续的大规模尾迹爆发，在晴空条件下发生，持续时间为 2020 年 6 月 22 日至 23 日。通过对地静止卫星云反演和辐射，获得了它们每小时的云辐射效应。转移计算，白天为负值或弱正值，夜间为正值。两次爆发的累积能量强迫分别为 7 PJ 和 -8.5 PJ，不确定性为 3 PJ，分别源于 19 小时和 7 小时内约 15-20 次飞行。这项研究表明，自动量化尾迹爆发的辐射效应是可能的，至少对于晴空条件下形成的尾迹来说是这样。