Climate change is anticipated to pose a significant danger to the habitats and spatial distribution of species in the Mediterranean region throughout the present century. The primary objective of this study was to predict the future geographic range of Liquidambar orientalis, commonly known as the oriental sweetgum under different climate change scenarios. This species is a relict riparian Mediterranean plant originating from the southwestern Anatolia region and Rhodos Island in Greece. To gain insights into the potential effects of climate change on the range of L. orientalis in the future, I used an ensemble modeling approach of species distribution models based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 for the years 2035, 2055 and 2070). The models suggested that the level of precipitation during the wettest month has a crucial role in determining the occurrence of the oriental sweetgum tree. Future projections indicate that the oriental sweetgum will significantly contract its native distribution range due to warming and declining precipitation levels. The population of L. orientalis has previously undergone a decrease as a result of anthropogenic activity. Therefore, it is imperative to augment the degree of urgency in conservation endeavors for the oriental sweetgum species against the ramifications of human‐induced actions and the persistent effects of climate change.

中文翻译：

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预测气候变化对地中海孑遗树枫香地理范围的影响

预计气候变化将在本世纪对地中海地区物种的栖息地和空间分布构成重大威胁。本研究的主要目的是预测未来的地理范围枫香，俗称不同气候变化情景下的东方枫香。该物种是一种残留的地中海沿岸植物，原产于西南安纳托利亚地区和希腊罗多斯岛。深入了解气候变化对以下范围的潜在影响东方乳杆菌在未来，我使用基于共享社会经济路径的物种分布模型的集成建模方法（2035年、2055年和2070年的SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5）。模型表明，最潮湿月份的降水量对于确定东方枫香树的出现具有至关重要的作用。未来的预测表明，由于气候变暖和降水量减少，东方枫香的原生分布范围将大幅缩小。人口为东方乳杆菌此前曾因人类活动而减少。因此，必须加大东方枫香物种保护工作的紧迫性，以应对人类活动的影响和气候变化的持续影响。