The issue of rapprochement between former adversaries has received scant scholarly attention meaning there is little understanding of why some foes reconcile quickly, while others remain hostile for decades. Moreover, a specific facet of reconciliation, diplomatic normalization, while a crucial part of diplomacy, has not been explained by scholarly work. This study advances research on diplomatic normalization while proposing a novel theory of reconciliation involving Kantian elements: commerce, democracy, and law. Specifically, the paper proposes that significant economic incentives generate domestic lobbies in favour of normalization, while democratic norms and international institutions generate trust and transparency. This theory is tested on a new dataset that includes all potential cases of reconciliation after warfare since World War II. Survival analysis shows that market size, shared democracy, and joint international organization membership are significantly related to faster reconciliation. The causal mechanisms are examined in a case study of US—Vietnamese rapprochement. The policy implications for these findings and the limitations for political leaders are also discussed.

前对手之间的和解问题很少受到学术界的关注，这意味着人们很少理解为什么一些敌人能够迅速和解，而另一些敌人几十年来仍保持敌对状态。此外，和解的一个具体方面，即外交正常化，虽然是外交的重要组成部分，但尚未得到学术著作的解释。这项研究推进了外交正常化的研究，同时提出了一种涉及康德元素的新颖的和解理论：商业、民主和法律。具体来说，该文件提出，重要的经济激励措施会产生支持正常化的国内游说团体，而民主规范和国际机构会产生信任和透明度。该理论在一个新数据集上进行了测试，该数据集包括自二战以来战后所有潜在的和解案例。生存分析表明，市场规模、共享民主和联合国际组织成员资格与更快的和解显着相关。通过美国与越南和解的案例研究来检验其因果机制。还讨论了这些发现的政策影响以及对政治领导人的限制。