In the chemical flooding process, the premature breakthrough of chemical agents in production wells results in a large waste of chemical agents and increases the volume and processing difficulty of the produced fluids. The early warning method of chemical agent channeling can predict the strength of agent channeling in advance. The practice of chemical flooding shows that the production performance can be used for early warning of chemical agent channeling. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between cumulative oil production and cumulative polymer production of production wells in polymer–surfactant flooding. Three types of curves according to the enhanced oil production characteristics of chemical flooding, including convex type, S‐type, and concave type. We use the drop speed of the water–oil ratio and the rapid‐decline speed of water cut as early warning indicators to predict the channeling coefficient. A Latin hypercube experimental design method is used to design a polymer–surfactant flooding scheme with the main control factors of the channeling coefficient and early warning indicators. Numerical simulation is used to calculate samples of the channeling coefficient and early warning indicators under various conditions. The drop speed of the water–oil ratio reference value model and the rapid‐decline speed of the water cut reference value model are determined with a multiple regression method. A prediction model for the chemical agent channeling coefficient is established using the deviation coefficient of an early warning index. The method is applied in the Ng54‐61 polymer–surfactant flooding pilot area in the west of the Gudong Seventh District, Shengli Oilfield, China, and the error between the predicted result and the actual value is less than 10%. This research is helpful in taking effective antichanneling measures and improving the oil recovery degree of chemical flooding reservoirs.

中文翻译：

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聚合物-表面活性剂驱油藏化学剂窜流预警方法

在化学驱过程中，生产井化学药剂过早突破，造成化学药剂大量浪费，增加采出液量和处理难度。化学药剂窜动预警方法可以提前预测药剂窜动的强度。化学驱实践表明，生产动态可用于化学剂窜流预警。本文分析了聚合物-表面活性剂驱生产井累计产油量与累计聚合物产量之间的关系。根据化学驱增油特点，绘制了凸型、S型、凹型三种曲线。我们以水油比下降速度和含水快速下降速度作为预测窜流系数的预警指标。采用拉丁超立方实验设计方法，设计以窜流系数和预警指标为主要控制因素的聚合物-表面活性剂驱方案。通过数值模拟计算出各种条件下的窜流系数和预警指标样本。采用多元回归方法确定水油比参考值模型的下降速度和含水率参考值模型的快速下降速度。利用预警指标的偏差系数建立了化学药剂窜流系数的预测模型。该方法应用于NG54‐61胜利油田孤东七区西部聚合物—表面活性剂驱试验区，预测结果与实际值误差小于10%。该研究有助于采取有效的防窜措施，提高化学驱油藏采收率。