Purpose

This paper aims to examine the factors that contribute to the external debt growth in Ghana.

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the error correction model (ECM) to establish the short-run and long-run relationships between the dependent variable (external debt) and the independent variables (debt service, exchange rate, gross domestic product, government expenditure, import and trade openness), using a time series data spanning from 1990 to 2019.

Findings

The results indicate that debt service, GDP, government expenditure and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while import and exchange rates have a negative relationship with external debt in the long run. In the short run, debt service, import, exchange rate and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while GDP has a negative relationship with external debt.

Practical implications

The study found that variables such as government expenditure, debt service and import contribute significantly to the nation’s external debt stock. These findings suggest that policymakers should focus on prioritising and cutting down expenditure in their quest to curtail the debt menace facing the nation. Since existing debt service has the tendency of influencing debt stock, it is recommended that government should reduce borrowing in order avoid debt trap. Home-grown policies to reduce imports must also be encouraged. As these drivers of external debt are tackled head-on, Ghana can be rightly positioned to record lower levels of public debt and subsequently reap the benefits of economic growth.

Originality/value

The study adds to the public debt literature, specifically addressing the idiosyncratic determinants of external debt within the Ghanaian context.

中文翻译：

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加纳外债的驱动因素

目的

本文旨在研究导致加纳外债增长的因素。

设计/方法论/途径

研究采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型和误差修正模型（ECM）建立因变量（外债）与自变量（偿债、汇率、毛利率）之间的短期和长期关系。国内生产、政府支出、进口和贸易开放度），使用 1990 年至 2019 年的时间序列数据。

发现

研究结果表明，偿债、GDP、政府支出和贸易开放度与外债存在显着正相关关系，而进口和汇率与外债长期呈负相关关系。短期来看，偿债、进口、汇率、贸易开放度与外债呈显着正相关关系，而GDP与外债呈负相关关系。

实际影响

研究发现，政府支出、偿债和进口等变量对国家外债存量影响很大。这些调查结果表明，政策制定者应重点关注优先考虑和削减支出，以遏制国家面临的债务威胁。由于现有偿债有影响债务存量的趋势，建议政府减少借贷以避免债务陷阱。还必须鼓励减少进口的本土政策。随着这些外债驱动因素得到正面解决，加纳可以正确定位，将公共债务水平降至较低水平，并随后获得经济增长的好处。

原创性/价值

该研究补充了公共债务文献，特别针对加纳背景下外债的特殊决定因素。