This study examines the spatiotemporal variability of mean monthly temperature in the Moulouya watershed of northeastern Morocco, highlighting associated trends. To this end, statistical methods widely recommended by climate researchers were adopted. We used monthly mean temperature data for the period 1980–2020 from 9 measuring stations belonging to the Moulouya Watershed Agency (ABHM). These stations were rigorously selected, taking into account their reliability, the length of their records, and their geographical position in the basin. In addition, a quality test and homogenization of the temperature series were carried out using the Climatol tool. The results obtained show a significant upward trend in mean monthly temperature, mainly pronounced during the summer months, in the Moulouya watershed. In fact, Z values generally exceeded the 0.05 significance level at all stations during April, May, June, July, August, and October. According to the results of Sen’s slope test, mean monthly temperatures show an annual increase ranging from 0 to 0.13°C. The maximum magnitude of warming is recorded in July, specifically at Oujda Station. On an overall watershed scale, May, August, and July show a rapid warming trend, with average rates of 0.093, 0.086, and 0.08°C per year, respectively. By contrast, the series for the other months show no significant trend. Significant trend change points were also identified at watershed and station scales, mainly around 2000, primarily for accelerated warming of the summer months.

中文翻译：

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穆卢亚盆地（摩洛哥）变化点检测和月平均气温趋势评估的统计分析

这项研究研究了摩洛哥东北部穆卢亚流域月平均气温的时空变化，强调了相关趋势。为此，采用了气候研究人员广泛推荐的统计方法。我们使用了 Moulouya Watershed Agency (ABHM) 9 个测量站 1980 年至 2020 年期间的月平均温度数据。这些站点是经过严格选择的，考虑了它们的可靠性、记录的长度以及它们在流域中的地理位置。此外，还使用 ​​Climatol 工具对温度系列进行了质量测试和均质化。获得的结果显示，穆卢亚流域的月平均气温呈显着上升趋势，主要在夏季显着。事实上， 4月、5月、6月、7月、8月和10月所有站点的Z值普遍超过0.05显着性水平。根据森氏斜率检验的结果，月平均气温年上升幅度为0℃至0.13℃。七月出现了最大幅度的变暖，特别是在乌季达站。从流域整体规模来看，5月、8月和7月呈现快速增温趋势，平均年增温率分别为0.093、0.086和0.08℃。相比之下，其他月份的系列没有显示出明显的趋势。在流域和站点尺度上也发现了显着的趋势变化点，主要是在 2000 年左右，主要是夏季加速变暖。