Anthropic influence has accelerated climate change rates and become a major cause of the sixth mass extinction. Conservation strategies such as identifying climate refugia can provide preliminary information for conservation planning. Our study aimed to identify climate refugia for 132 widespread endemic anuran species of the South America Atlantic Forest and assess their persistence in future climate change scenarios. Using species distribution models, we generated geographic projections for six time periods, including the Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene, current time, and two periods in the future under two climate change scenarios each. We defined climate refugia as areas where the geographic distributions of species overlapped in the three time periods in the past and present. We observed a maximum overlap of 40 species and found them mainly in parts of the southeastern and northeastern Atlantic Forest. These refugia should remain suitable for most species in future climate change scenarios, making them important for conservation. Our study highlights the importance of these areas to maintain biodiversity and prevent the loss of endemic anuran species in the megadiverse Atlantic Forest. Overall, our findings have important implications for conservation planning in the Atlantic Forest and other regions affected by climate change.

中文翻译：

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大西洋森林广泛流行的无尾目动物的气候庇护所将在未来的气候变化情景中持续存在

人为影响加速了气候变化速度，成为第六次大规模灭绝的主要原因。识别气候保护区等保护策略可以为保护规划提供初步信息。我们的研究旨在确定南美洲大西洋森林 132 种广泛分布的特有无尾动物的气候庇护所，并评估它们在未来气候变化情景中的持久性。使用物种分布模型，我们生成了六个时间段的地理预测，包括末次间冰期、末次盛冰期、全新世中期、当前时间和未来两个时期，每个时期有两种气候变化情景。我们将气候保护区定义为过去和现在三个时间段内物种地理分布重叠的区域。我们观察到最多 40 个物种重叠，发现它们主要分布在东南部和东北部大西洋森林的部分地区。在未来的气候变化情景下，这些避难所应该仍然适合大多数物种，这使得它们对于保护非常重要。我们的研究强调了这些地区对于维持生物多样性和防止大西洋森林特有无尾动物物种丧失的重要性。总体而言，我们的研究结果对大西洋森林和其他受气候变化影响的地区的保护规划具有重要意义。