A green transition powered by large-scale, renewable energy is under way in northern Sweden, featuring innovations in fossil-free mining, green steel production, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing. These new initiatives are the most ambitious in decades, envisioned by companies and politicians as a bright, green future for a region haunted by a history of population and economic decline. However, to meet the demands of growing green industries, the north will have to attract an additional 100,000 residents and increase its renewable energy production thirteen-fold. Building on interview data with key stakeholders in Norrbotten and Västerbotten, Sweden's two northernmost counties, this article investigates the drivers behind this green growth and examines the challenges that municipalities and industries will face in achieving it. In the long term, can the demands of a growing green economy be met while delivering justice to the rural and Indigenous Sámi populations of the region who have alternative visions for land use in the north? To answer this question, this article lays out a framework that complements existing approaches to justice in green transitions, identifying potential incongruences between growth and justice. This framework emphasizes the need to take into account four factors – order, timescale, agendas, and actors – which ultimately shape the priorities, possibilities, and justice of green transformation outcomes.

中文翻译：

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“番茄酱效应”：瑞典北部绿色转型中协调增长与正义的挑战

瑞典北部正在进行大规模可再生能源驱动的绿色转型，其特点是无化石采矿、绿色钢铁生产和锂离子电池制造方面的创新。这些新举措是几十年来最雄心勃勃的举措，企业和政客们将其视为一个饱受人口和经济衰退历史困扰的地区的光明、绿色未来。然而，为了满足不断增长的绿色产业的需求，北部地区必须额外吸引10万居民，并将可再生能源产量增加13倍。本文基于对瑞典最北端的两个县北博滕省和西博滕省主要利益相关者的采访数据，调查了这种绿色增长背后的驱动因素，并探讨了市政当局和行业在实现这一目标时将面临的挑战。从长远来看，能否满足不断增长的绿色经济的需求，同时为该地区对北部土地利用有不同愿景的农村和土著萨米人伸张正义？为了回答这个问题，本文提出了一个框架，补充绿色转型中现有的正义方法，找出增长与正义之间潜在的不一致之处。该框架强调需要考虑四个因素——秩序、时间表、议程和参与者——它们最终决定绿色转型结果的优先事项、可能性和正义。