Natural and socio-economic development under climate change has affected the distribution of surface water resources (SWRs) in many deltas worldwide. The dynamics in the SWRs has negatively impacted agricultural production, which is one of the growing issues in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) as the national rice bowl. Our study aims to assess SWR dynamics related to its effects on rice production in the upper VMD. We applied Mann–Kendall, linear regression and Pettit tests to statistically determine trends of SWRs in terms of water level, total water volume and rainfall in 1996–2020. The findings show that high water level trends decrease significantly after 2011, and this reduction has been due to climate variability and dam development upstream of the Mekong River. Moreover, rice yield data analysis from 1996 to 2020 indicated a decreasing trend in the yield of the winter–spring rice crop in the An Phu district of An Giang Province after 2011. Our interviews with 33 water experts and 90 local farmers revealed 80% agreement that the decline in water resources has affected rice yield. This study provides empirical evidence and a platform for knowledge sharing and learning across different deltas and initiatives worldwide.

中文翻译：

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越南湄公河三角洲上游水资源变化对冬春水稻产量的影响——以安江省为例

气候变化下的自然和社会经济发展影响了全球许多三角洲地表水资源（SWR）的分布。西南水区的动态对农业生产产生了负面影响，这是越南湄公河三角洲（VMD）作为国家饭碗的日益严重的问题之一。我们的研究旨在评估 SWR 动态及其对 VMD 上游水稻生产的影响。我们应用Mann-Kendall、线性回归和Pettit检验来统计确定1996-2020年水位、总水量和降雨量方面的SWR趋势。研究结果表明，2011年之后高水位趋势显着下降，这种下降是由于气候变化和湄公河上游大坝的开发造成的。此外，1996年至2020年水稻产量数据分析表明，2011年之后，安江省安富县冬春水稻产量呈下降趋势。我们对33名水利专家和90名当地农民的采访显示，80%的人同意水资源的减少影响了水稻的产量。这项研究为全球不同三角洲和倡议的知识共享和学习提供了经验证据和平台。