Recent studies have shown that the coronavirus pandemic not only temporarily increased support for incumbent politicians and trust in experts but also triggered an authoritarian response. Because the pandemic has significantly affected individuals’ goals, needs, and control over their lives, we expect that it has generated emotional reactions. In this article, we study how concerns about COVID-19 relate to institutional trust (trust in political institutions and experts) and a preference for populist right parties—directly and indirectly—via emotions. Our theoretical framework relies on the “rally around the flag” hypothesis, the cultural backlash theory, as well as appraisal theories of emotions. We analyze a novel data set collected as part of the Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences Panel Survey for the Netherlands at the beginning of the second wave of the pandemic (October 2020). Our findings reveal that concerns about COVID-19 are positively related to institutional trust but unrelated to preferences for right-wing populism. The relationship between concerns about the coronavirus crisis and trust in political institutions is mediated via fear and sadness; these emotions also explain opposition to right-wing populist parties. We interpret our findings in relation to research on the rally around the flag effect, right-wing populism, and emotions. We discuss the implications of our results in the context of the coronavirus pandemic and other “rally”-inducing events.

中文翻译：

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团结在政府周围还是民粹主义的回应？对 COVID-19 的担忧和情绪反应与机构信任和对右翼民粹主义的支持有何关系

最近的研究表明，冠状病毒大流行不仅暂时增加了对现任政客的支持和对专家的信任，而且还引发了专制反应。由于疫情严重影响了个人的目标、需求和对生活的控制，我们预计它会产生情绪反应。在本文中，我们研究了对 COVID-19 的担忧如何与机构信任（对政治机构和专家的信任）以及对民粹主义右翼政党的偏好（直接或间接）通过情感联系起来。我们的理论框架依赖于“围绕旗帜集会”假说、文化反弹理论以及情绪评价理论。我们分析了第二波大流行开始时（2020 年 10 月）荷兰社会科学小组调查纵向互联网研究的一部分收集的新数据集。我们的研究结果表明，对 COVID-19 的担忧与机构信任呈正相关，但与右翼民粹主义的偏好无关。对冠状病毒危机的担忧与对政治机构的信任之间的关系是通过恐惧和悲伤来调节的；这些情绪也解释了为什么反对右翼民粹主义政党。我们根据围绕旗帜效应、右翼民粹主义和情绪的集会研究来解释我们的发现。我们讨论了我们的结果在冠状病毒大流行和其他“集会”引发事件的背景下的影响。