The Global Biodiversity Framework established ambitious goals for nature recovery which governments must now incorporate into national legislation. In England, legally binding targets require authorities to halt the decline in species abundance by 2030 and reverse the decline by 2042. Riverine invertebrates represent a substantial proportion of the species contributing towards the targets. Thus, understanding the response of these species to potential river restoration actions is key to target delivery. We model counts for 188 riverine invertebrate taxa using zero-inflated generalized Poisson models, applying the models to both inform river restoration planning and set expected values for use in ecological assessment. We identify catchment-specific restoration strategies that combine one or more actions involving the removal of channel modifications, reductions in nitrate concentrations and reductions in total dissolved phosphorus concentrations as the most likely to deliver species abundance targets across three joint climate–socioeconomic scenarios. By hindcasting species abundances under alternative target frameworks, we also demonstrate a new approach to setting expected values in ecological assessment, accounting for changes in water temperature and hydrology that confound historical reference models presently used by regulators. Our findings represent the first systematic attempt to prioritise major actions to deliver species abundance targets in England, providing valuable insights for policymakers, river restoration practitioners and authorities responsible for monitoring river ecosystems.

中文翻译：

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预测河流恢复规划和生态评估的自然恢复：英格兰案例研究，1991-2042

全球生物多样性框架为自然恢复制定了雄心勃勃的目标，各国政府现在必须将其纳入国家立法。在英格兰，具有法律约束力的目标要求当局到 2030 年停止物种丰富度的下降，并到 2042 年扭转下降趋势。河流无脊椎动物在实现这些目标的物种中占很大比例。因此，了解这些物种对潜在河流恢复行动的反应是实现目标的关键。我们使用零膨胀广义泊松模型对 188 个河流无脊椎动物类群的计数进行建模，应用这些模型为河流恢复规划提供信息并设定用于生态评估的预期值。我们确定了针对特定流域的恢复策略，该策略结合了一项或多项行动，包括消除河道改造、降低硝酸盐浓度和降低总溶解磷浓度，最有可能在三种气候-社会经济联合情景中实现物种丰度目标。通过在替代目标框架下预测物种丰度，我们还展示了一种在生态评估中设定预期值的新方法，考虑到水温和水文的变化，这些变化混淆了监管机构目前使用的历史参考模型。我们的研究结果代表了首次系统性尝试，优先考虑主要行动以实现英格兰的物种丰度目标，为政策制定者、河流恢复从业者和负责监测河流生态系统的当局提供了宝贵的见解。