Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of political relations on trade in strategic emerging industries (SEIs) in the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) associated countries. This investigation encompasses not only from the perspective of bilateral political relations but also the political intervention of third parties.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs the temporal exponential random graphmodel to analyze the dynamic structure and influencing factor of SEIs trade network among 150 BRI-associated countries from 2015 to 2020.

Findings

The results indicate that the trade of SEIs in the BRI-associated countries exhibits a pattern of concentrated exporters and decentralized importers. Amicable bilateral political relations foster trade cooperations in SEIs, while political pressure from the United States has the opposite effect. Furthermore, compared with the influence of third parties, the BRI has created a more robust trade environment characterized by political mutual trust.

Practical implications

BRI-associated countries should strengthen their political communication, and endeavor to transform political consensus and shared vision into concrete collaborative projects, while mitigating geopolitical uncertainties through a sound risk evaluation system. Moreover, they should establish a more transparent and consistent consultation mechanism and leverage the BRI trade network to foster balanced and mutually beneficial partnerships that minimize rivalry and dependence on a single market.

Originality/value

This study goes beyond observed trade cost and incorporates the political factor into the determinants of the BRI trade, thereby expanding the theoretical boundaries of existing BRI research. Also, this study employs bilateral trade data to construct SEIs trade networks (SEITNs) along the BRI route. It provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic determinates of the SEITNs will provide valuable practical guidance for enhancing and expanding trade and cooperation among BRI-associated countries.

中文翻译：

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“一带一路”政治关系与贸易合作：基于战略性新兴产业的贸易网络​​研究

目的

本研究的目的是探讨政治关系对“一带一路”沿线国家战略性新兴产业（SEIs）贸易的影响。这项调查不仅包括双边政治关系的角度，还包括第三方的政治干预。

设计/方法论/途径

研究采用时间指数随机图模型分析2015年至2020年150个“一带一路”沿线国家SEIs贸易网络的动态结构和影响因素。

发现

研究结果表明，“一带一路”沿线国家的SEI贸易呈现出口商集中、进口商分散的格局。友好的双边政治关系有利于SEI的贸易合作，而来自美国的政治压力则产生相反的效果。此外，与第三方的影响相比，“一带一路”营造了更加健全的政治互信的贸易环境。

实际影响

沿线国家应加强政治沟通，努力将政治共识和共同愿景转化为具体合作项目，同时通过完善的风险评估体系缓解地缘政治不确定性。此外，他们应该建立更加透明和一致的磋商机制，并利用“一带一路”贸易网络培育平衡和互利的伙伴关系，最大限度地减少对单一市场的竞争和依赖。

原创性/价值

本研究超越了观察到的贸易成本，将政治因素纳入“一带一路”贸易的决定因素中，从而拓展了现有“一带一路”研究的理论边界。此外，本研究还利用双边贸易数据构建“一带一路”沿线的SEIs贸易网络（SEITN）。它全面了解了SEITN的动态决定因素，将为加强和扩大“一带一路”沿线国家之间的贸易与合作提供宝贵的实践指导。