Scenario and policy assessments in socioeconomic and environmental studies face significant challenges in socio-ecological systems (SES). There are a limited number of studies that have looked at the impact of different scenarios within integrated approaches, and many have used a static approach with a single driver of change. The present work analyzes the SES dynamics for a strategic basin in the Colombian Andes when implementing and analyzing scenarios and policies related to land cover and land use change using a system dynamics simulation model. The model includes natural, ecosystem services, sociocultural, and economic components. Scenarios and policy options are analyzed both individually and jointly to identify synergies or trade-off effects between the different SES components. The results showed the different trajectories of the socio-ecological system according to the cases studied, and its impact on different variables in the analyzed components. Some counterintuitive effects were also identified, such as the importance of intrinsic motivations in decision-making processes, and determinants in land management and policy design.

社会经济和环境研究中的情景和政策评估面临着社会生态系统（SES）的重大挑战。有数量有限的研究着眼于集成方法中不同场景的影响，并且许多研究使用了具有单一变革驱动因素的静态方法。目前的工作使用系统动力学模拟模型，在实施和分析与土地覆盖和土地利用变化相关的情景和政策时，分析了哥伦比亚安第斯山脉战略盆地的SES动态。该模型包括自然、生态系统服务、社会文化和经济组成部分。对情景和政策选项进行单独和联合分析，以确定不同社会经济地位组成部分之间的协同效应或权衡效应。结果显示了根据研究案例的社会生态系统的不同轨迹，及其对分析组成部分中不同变量的影响。还发现了一些违反直觉的影响，例如决策过程中内在动机的重要性以及土地管理和政策设计中的决定因素。