Most of the macro-literature on uncertainty has focused on macro-uncertainty caused by real activity as a source of economic fluctuations. Economic uncertainty reduces total demand in the economy via a conventional channel that is associated with real option theory. Given the findings of the existing literature, financial uncertainty other than macroeconomic uncertainty matters more for business cycle fluctuations. This study seeks to answer the following questions: Is uncertainty the primary cause of the business cycle’s fluctuations? Alternatively, does it matter what kind of uncertainty exists? The research utilized the generalized linear model (GLM) and the Bayesian generalized linear model (BGLM) to analyze a dataset covering the time from July 1960 to April 2015 in the United States. Elevated levels of macroeconomic uncertainty, akin to real uncertainty, and economic policy uncertainty, as measured by news sources, demonstrate a counter-cyclical pattern in relation to business cycles. Low levels of uncertainty have a positive impact on business cycles, leading to an increase in industrial production. Conversely, high levels of uncertainty have a negative effect on business cycles, causing a decline in industrial output. We are of the opinion that high levels of macroeconomic uncertainty have a ripple effect on the entire economy, which may stifle investments, reduce consumption, and create unemployment, which is likely to influence labor participation.JEL Classification: D81, E23, E32, E44, G14.

中文翻译：

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不确定性指标和商业周期：来自美国的证据

大多数关于不确定性的宏观文献都关注由实际活动引起的宏观不确定性作为经济波动的根源。经济不确定性通过与实物期权理论相关的传统渠道减少了经济中的总需求。根据现有文献的研究结果，除了宏观经济不确定性之外，金融不确定性对商业周期波动的影响更大。本研究旨在回答以下问题：不确定性是商业周期波动的主要原因吗？或者说，存在什么样的不确定性重要吗？该研究利用广义线性模型（GLM）和贝叶斯广义线性模型（BGLM）来分析美国1960年7月至2015年4月期间的数据集。根据新闻来源的衡量，宏观经济不确定性水平的升高（类似于实际的不确定性）和经济政策的不确定性，表明了与商业周期相关的反周期模式。低水平的不确定性对商业周期产生积极影响，导致工业生产增加。相反，高度的不确定性会对商业周期产生负面影响，导致工业产出下降。我们认为，宏观经济的高度不确定性会对整个经济产生连锁反应，可能会抑制投资、减少消费、造成失业，进而影响劳动力参与度。JEL 分类：D81、E23、E32、E44 ，G14。