Genetic variation and performance of up to 40-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) families from half-diallel crosses made in natural populations where studied, and the results were compared with results from nursery test of seedlings (1-2 years from seed) and short-term farm-field tests at 6-10 years from seed. The diallel analyses revealed significant levels of additive genetic variance for growth and phenology traits. The non-additive genetic variance was generally small to moderate. Strong genetic correlations for growth performance were found between the short-term and long-term trials but not between the nursery and long-term trials. Similarly, genetic correlations for phenology traits were strong between short-term trials and long-term trials, whereas the nursery tests generally did not predict phenology at older age well. The findings indicate that early selection for growth and adaptive traits based on short-term trials is effective for improvement of long-term performance in field if the test site is not outside the normal range of deployment of the reproductive material.

中文翻译：

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冷杉中的 Diallel 杂交 V. 早期测试能否预测长期表现？

40岁以下挪威云杉的遗传变异和性能（云杉(L.)喀斯特)家系在自然群体中进行了研究，并将结果与​​幼苗苗圃试验(从种子起1-2年)和短期农田试验的结果进行了比较 6从种子开始-10年。双列分析揭示了生长和物候性状的显着水平的加性遗传方差。非加性遗传方差通常较小至中等。在短期和长期试验之间发现了生长性能的强遗传相关性，但在苗圃和长期试验之间却没有发现。同样，短期试验和长期试验之间物候性状的遗传相关性很强，而苗圃试验通常不能很好地预测老年的物候。研究结果表明，如果测试地点不超出繁殖材料的正常部署范围，基于短期试验的生长和适应性特征的早期选择对于改善田间的长期性能是有效的。