Atlantic hurricane season length is important for emergency management preparation, motivating the need to understand its variability and change. We investigated the influence of ocean variability on Atlantic hurricane season length in observations and a future climate simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We found that multiple factors influence hurricane season length, through their influence on season start and end. Warm western subtropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) during boreal spring (before the official hurricane season start) drive early starts to the hurricane season, and vice versa for cool SSTAs. Meanwhile, La Niña in autumn (before the official hurricane season end) drives late ends to the hurricane season, and vice versa for El Niño. E3SM projects a 27-day increase in future Atlantic hurricane season length given La Niña and warm northern tropical Atlantic SSTAs. This research documents sources of predictability for Atlantic hurricane season length.

中文翻译：

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气候变率和未来气候变化对大西洋飓风季节长度的影响

大西洋飓风季节的长度对于应急管理准备非常重要，因此需要了解其变异性和变化。我们通过观测研究了海洋变化对大西洋飓风季节长度的影响，并通过百兆亿级能源地球系统模型 (E3SM) 模拟了未来的气候。我们发现多种因素通过影响飓风季节的开始和结束来影响飓风季节的长度。北春季（官方飓风季节开始之前）温暖的西副热带大西洋海面温度异常（SSTA）导致飓风季节提早开始，而凉爽的海表温度反之亦然。与此同时，秋季的拉尼娜现象（在官方飓风季节结束之前）导致飓风季节较晚结束，而厄尔尼诺现象则相反。鉴于拉尼娜现象和温暖的北热带大西洋海温异常，E3SM 预计未来大西洋飓风季节长度将延长 27 天。这项研究记录了大西洋飓风季节长度的可预测性来源。