Introduction Nigeria is committed to reducing industrial trans- fatty acids (iTFA) from the food supply, but the potential health gains, costs and cost-effectiveness are unknown. Methods The effect on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) burden, costs and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) for foods in Nigeria were estimated using Markov cohort models. Data on demographics, IHD epidemiology and trans- fatty acid intake were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Avoided IHD events and deaths; health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained; and healthcare, policy implementation and net costs were estimated over 10 years and the population’s lifetime. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios using net costs and HALYs gained (both discounted at 3%) were used to assess cost-effectiveness. Results Over the first 10 years, a mandatory iTFA limit (assumed to eliminate iTFA intake) was estimated to prevent 9996 (95% uncertainty interval: 8870 to 11 118) IHD deaths and 66 569 (58 862 to 74 083) IHD events, and to save US$90 million (78 to 102) in healthcare costs. The corresponding lifetime estimates were 259 934 (228 736 to 290 191), 479 308 (95% UI 420 472 to 538 177) and 518 (450 to 587). Policy implementation costs were estimated at US$17 million (11 to 23) over the first 10 years, and US$26 million USD (19 to 33) over the population’s lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost-saving, and findings were robust across several deterministic sensitivity analyses. Conclusion Our findings support mandating a limit of iTFAs as a cost-saving strategy to reduce the IHD burden in Nigeria. Data are available upon reasonable request. All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information. All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplmentary information. Original data are available on request.

中文翻译：

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尼日利亚消除工业反式脂肪酸的估计健康效益、成本和成本效益：成本效益分析

简介 尼日利亚致力于减少食品供应中的工业反式脂肪酸 (iTFA)，但潜在的健康收益、成本和成本效益尚不清楚。方法 使用马尔可夫队列模型评估尼日利亚食品强制性 iTFA 限制（≤所有脂肪的 2%）对缺血性心脏病 (IHD) 负担、成本和成本效益的影响。有关人口统计、IHD 流行病学和反式脂肪酸摄入量的数据来自 2019 年全球疾病负担研究。避免了 IHD 事件和死亡；获得的健康调整生命年 (HALY)；医疗保健、政策实施和净成本是在 10 年和人口一生中进行估计的。使用净成本和获得的 HALY（均按 3% 折扣）的增量成本效益比来评估成本效益。结果 在前 10 年中，强制性 iTFA 限制（假设消除 iTFA 摄入量）估计可预防 9996 例（95% 不确定区间：8870 至 11 118）例 IHD 死亡和 66 569 例（58 862 至 74 083）例 IHD 事件，以及节省 9000 万美元（78 比 102）的医疗费用。相应的寿命估计为 259 934（228 736 至 290 191）、479 308（95% UI 420 472 至 538 177）和 518（450 至 587）。前 10 年政策实施成本估计为 1,700 万美元（11 岁至 23 岁），人口一生为 2,600 万美元（19 岁至 33 岁）。据估计，该干预措施可以节省成本，并且多项确定性敏感性分析的结果都是稳健的。结论 我们的研究结果支持强制限制 iTFA 作为一项节省成本的策略，以减轻尼日利亚的 IHD 负担。数据可根据合理要求提供。与研究相关的所有数据都包含在文章中或作为补充信息上传。与研究相关的所有数据都包含在文章中或作为补充信息上传。原始数据可根据要求提供。