Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long time horizons^1,2,3,4,5,6. Here we use recent empirical findings from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation, including daily variability and extremes^7,8. Using an empirical approach that provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices (relative to a baseline without climate impacts, likely range of 11–29% accounting for physical climate and empirical uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to 2 °C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices. Committed damages arise predominantly through changes in average temperature, but accounting for further climatic components raises estimates by approximately 50% and leads to stronger regional heterogeneity. Committed losses are projected for all regions except those at very high latitudes, at which reductions in temperature variability bring benefits. The largest losses are committed at lower latitudes in regions with lower cumulative historical emissions and lower present-day income.

对宏观经济气候变化损害的全球预测通常会考虑长期年平均气温和全国气温的影响^1,2,3,4,5,6。在这里，我们利用过去 40 年来全球 1,600 多个地区的最新实证研究结果来预测温度和降水对次国家地区造成的损害，包括每日变化和极端情况^7,8。采用实证方法，为经济增长影响的持续性提供强有力的下限，我们发现世界经济致力于在未来 26 年内将收入减少 19%，而与未来的排放选择无关（相对于没有排放的基线）气候影响，考虑到物理气候和经验不确定性，可能范围为 11-29%）。这些损害已经超过了在短期内将全球变暖限制在 2°C 所需的缓解成本的六倍，并且此后的差异很大程度上取决于排放选择。造成的损害主要是由平均温度的变化引起的，但考虑到进一步的气候因素，估计值提高了约 50%，并导致区域异质性更强。预计所有地区都会遭受损失，但高纬度地区除外，在这些地区，温度变化的减少会带来好处。最大的损失发生在历史累积排放量和当前收入较低的低纬度地区。