The dynamics that have led to the dramatic increase in the Istanbul housing market in recent years have revealed housing affordability concerns. Although the dynamics affecting housing market disruptions are generally attributed to demand and supply side factors, it is also necessary to take into account the macroeconomic factors causing this. We concordantly demonstrate the strong connections between the increase in housing prices and the dynamics affecting this increase by observing the recent developments in the Istanbul housing market. We then utilize a time-varying approach by transforming a linear model into a nonlinear model to investigate the mechanisms underlying this relationship. Afterward, we observe the impulse-response graphs. On the supply side, increases in construction costs and builders’ sales price expectations augment real housing prices. However, excessive borrowing by construction companies has a decreasing impact on prices. On the demand side, housing prices in Istanbul grow because mortgage interest rates decrease and housing sales to foreigners and refugee migration increase. In the macroeconomic sight, real exchange rate, inflation, growth rate, and money supply boosts enhance prices. At the same time, housing prices rise as long as the unemployment rate and policy interest decrease. While housing prices respond most to construction costs among supply and demand variables, they react to money supply among macroeconomic variables. Eventually, after all our findings, we recommend socioeconomic policies for housing affordability problems.

中文翻译：

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使用有关住房负担能力的贝叶斯时变 VAR 模型预测伊斯坦布尔房地产市场的动态

近年来导致伊斯坦布尔房地产市场急剧增长的动态揭示了住房负担能力的担忧。虽然影响房地产市场混乱的动态通常归因于需求和供给方面的因素，但也有必要考虑造成这种情况的宏观经济因素。通过观察伊斯坦布尔房地产市场的近期发展，我们一致证明了房价上涨与影响房价上涨的动态之间的密切联系。然后，我们利用时变方法将线性模型转换为非线性模型来研究这种关系背后的机制。然后，我们观察脉冲响应图。在供应方面，建筑成本的增加和建筑商销售价格预期的增加推高了实际房价。然而，建筑公司过度借贷对价格的影响正在减弱。在需求方面，伊斯坦布尔的房价上涨，因为抵押贷款利率下降，向外国人出售的住房和难民移民增加。从宏观经济角度来看，实际汇率、通货膨胀、增长率和货币供应量的增长都会推高物价。与此同时，只要失业率和政策利率下降，房价就会上涨。虽然房价对供需变量中的建筑成本反应最大，但它们对宏观经济变量中的货币供应量反应最大。最终，在我们的所有发现之后，我们建议针对住房负担能力问题采取社会经济政策。