In line with Global Climate Change Alliance initiated in 2007 by the European Commission, the South Korean government announced the “2050 Carbon-Neutral Strategy” in October 2020. The 2050 Carbon-Neutral Scenario was announced in October 2021, with the aim of reducing the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40 % by 2030 compared to those in 2018. The primary objective of this study is to conduct a scenario-based comparative analysis focusing on the forecast of greenhouse gas emissions and the potential for reduction within the building sector. The methodology employed in this study utilizes the greenhouse gas emission calculation methods outlined in the IPCC Guidelines of 1996 and 2006. Based on the national building energy and statistics database for the years 2015 to 2019, the study analyzes building types, building energy intensity, and floor areas to calculate emissions and energy consumption within the sector. The results indicate that the emissions will increase continuously from 2020 (156.9 million tons of CO equivalent) to 2050 (217.8 million tons of CO equivalent). We have considered the four scenarios outlined in the ‘2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenario’ as the most effective strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector. These include: (1) Mandatory implementation of Zero-Energy Buildings (ZEB) for new buildings by 2050, (2) 100 % execution of green remodeling for existing buildings, (3) Promotion of high-efficiency devices to achieve a 25–30 % improvement in energy consumption efficiency compared to 2018 and an enhancement of device energy use per unit, and (4) Expansion of clean heat utilization such as fuel cells and waste heat utilization in district heating. Thus, the possibility of South Korea achieving the 2050 carbon-neutrality target in the building sector is low. Therefore, it is important to develop effective emissions reduction policies and plans for the building sector.

中文翻译：

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韩国的 2050 年碳中和情景是否足以实现温室气体减排目标？

根据欧盟委员会于 2007 年发起的全球气候变化联盟，韩国政府于 2020 年 10 月宣布了“2050 年碳中和战略”。2050 年碳中和情景于 2021 年 10 月公布，旨在减少到 2030 年，该国的温室气体 (GHG) 排放量将比 2018 年减少 40%。本研究的主要目标是进行基于情景的比较分析，重点关注建筑行业温室气体排放量的预测和减排潜力。本研究采用1996年和2006年IPCC指南中概述的温室气体排放计算方法。基于2015年至2019年国家建筑能源和统计数据库，研究分析了建筑类型、建筑能源强度和建筑面积来计算该行业内的排放和能源消耗。结果表明，从2020年（1.569亿吨二氧化碳当量）到2050年（2.178亿吨二氧化碳当量），排放量将持续增加。我们认为“2050 年碳中和情景”中概述的四种情景是减少建筑行业温室气体排放的最有效策略。其中包括：（1）到2050年新建建筑强制实施零能耗建筑（ZEB），（2）现有建筑100%实施绿色改造，（3）推广高效设备，实现25-30与2018年相比，能源消耗效率提高%，单位设备能源使用量有所提高；(4)扩大燃料电池等清洁热利用和区域供热余热利用。因此，韩国在建筑领域实现2050年碳中和目标的可能性较低。因此，制定有效的建筑行业减排政策和计划非常重要。