Fluctuations in energy markets affect all economic activities by affecting energy prices and investment decisions. This study is the first attempt to investigate the energy-related uncertainty (volatility) in the world using the newly developed energy-related uncertainty index (EUI). The ARCH (autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) models are applied for this investigation between 1996 and 2021. The ARCH model reveals that global energy uncertainty is highly volatile, with a coefficient of 0.63. As policy implications, fostering the transition process to renewable energy and a green economy is recommended. The rise of renewable energy can reduce energy dependency and uncertainty in energy markets since they are less sensitive to exogenous shocks and fossil fuel price fluctuations. Understanding this uncertainty helps policymakers develop more effective energy policies, increase energy security and a sustainable environment, and maintain economic stability. The proposal to increase renewable energy in this study also aligns with the United Nation's SDG7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), which aims to improve the share of renewable energy by 2030.

中文翻译：

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全球能源不确定性的波动：可再生替代品

能源市场的波动通过影响能源价格和投资决策来影响所有经济活动。本研究是利用新开发的能源相关不确定性指数（EUI）来调查全球能源相关不确定性（波动性）的首次尝试。 1996年至2021年间，本研究采用ARCH（自回归条件异方差）和GARCH（广义自回归条件异方差）模型进行研究。ARCH模型揭示了全球能源不确定性的高度波动性，其系数为0.63。作为政策影响，建议促进向可再生能源和绿色经济的过渡进程。可再生能源的兴起可以减少能源依赖和能源市场的不确定性，因为它们对外来冲击和化石燃料价格波动不太敏感。了解这种不确定性有助于政策制定者制定更有效的能源政策，增强能源安全和可持续环境，并保持经济稳定。本研究中增加可再生能源的提议也符合联合国的SDG7（负担得起的清洁能源），其目标是到2030年提高可再生能源的份额。