Purpose

This study assesses the relevance of foreign aid to the incidence of capital flight and unemployment in 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

The study is for the period 1996–2018, and the empirical evidence is based on interactive quantile regressions in order to assess the nexuses throughout the conditional distribution of the unemployment outcome variable.

Findings

From the findings, capital flight has a positive unconditional incidence on unemployment, while foreign aid dampens the underlying positive unconditional nexus. Moreover, in order for the positive incidence of capital flight to be completely dampened, foreign aid thresholds of 2.230 and 3.964 (% of GDP) are needed at the 10th and 25th quantiles, respectively, of the conditional distribution of unemployment. It follows that the relevance of foreign aid in crowding out the unfavourable incidence of capital flight on unemployment is significantly apparent only in the lowest quantiles or countries with below-median levels of unemployment. The policy implications are discussed.

Originality/value

The study complements the extant literature by assessing the importance of development assistance in how capital flight affects unemployment in sub-Saharan Africa.

中文翻译：

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外援在撒哈拉以南非洲资本外逃和失业之间关系中的作用

目的

本研究评估了撒哈拉以南非洲 20 个国家的外援与资本外逃和失业发生率的相关性。

设计/方法论/途径

该研究针对 1996 年至 2018 年期间，经验证据基于交互式分位数回归，以评估失业结果变量条件分布中的关系。

发现

研究结果显示，资本外逃对失业有正向无条件影响，而外国援助则抑制了潜在的正向无条件关系。此外，为了完全抑制资本外逃的积极影响，失业条件分布的第 10 分位数和第 25 分位数需要分别设定 2.230 和 3.964（占 GDP 的百分比）的外国援助阈值。由此可见，外国援助在消除资本外逃对失业造成的不利影响方面的相关性只有在最低分位数或失业率低于中位数的国家中才非常明显。讨论了政策影响。

原创性/价值

该研究通过评估发展援助对于资本外逃如何影响撒哈拉以南非洲地区失业的重要性，对现有文献进行了补充。