We are increasingly confronted with external factors that affect or promote sustainable tourism development. The pandemic triggered by COVID-19 has shown that to effectively manage uncertainty, it is essential to include perceived risk as a predictor variable. This study analyses residents′ support for sustainable tourism development in low-density territories and proposes a model that takes into account several known antecedents for this support (community attachment, community involvement, economic dependence, local government management of tourism, tourism impact) and gives relevance to the perception of risk, largely ignored in academic studies and from the residents′ perspective. A structured questionnaire was used for data collection, applied to a sample of 250 residents from Lamego-Portugal, a low-density territory. The data was analysed using the Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The results show that perceived risk (associated with COVID) significantly affects the perceived costs of tourism, but has no direct influence on residents′ support for sustainable tourism development. This support is positively affected by community involvement, economic dependence, local government management of tourism and perceived costs. The results also show that community involvement and local government management of tourism have a positive impact on perceived benefits. The results can help tourism professionals strengthen sustainable tourism development programmes.

中文翻译：

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应对不确定性：感知风险在支持低密度地区可持续旅游业发展中的作用

我们越来越多地面临影响或促进旅游业可持续发展的外部因素。 COVID-19 引发的大流行表明，为了有效管理不确定性，必须将感知风险作为预测变量。本研究分析了低密度地区居民对可持续旅游业发展的支持，并提出了一个模型，该模型考虑了这种支持的几个已知因素（社区依附、社区参与、经济依赖、地方政府对旅游业的管理、旅游影响），并给出了与风险认知的相关性，在学术研究和居民的角度很大程度上被忽视了。采用结构化调查问卷收集数据，样本来自葡萄牙拉梅戈（低密度地区）的 250 名居民。使用结构方程模型（SEM）分析数据。结果表明，感知风险（与新冠病毒相关）显着影响旅游感知成本，但对居民对可持续旅游发展的支持没有直接影响。这种支持受到社区参与、经济依赖、地方政府对旅游业的管理和感知成本的积极影响。结果还表明，社区参与和地方政府对旅游业的管理对感知效益具有积极影响。研究结果可以帮助旅游专业人士加强可持续旅游发展计划。