Rooftop solar adoption is critical for residential decarbonization and hinges on its value to households. Climate change will probably affect the value of rooftop solar through impacts on rooftop solar generation and cooling demand, but no studies have quantified this effect. In this study, we quantified household-level effects of climate change on rooftop solar value and techno-economically optimal capacity by integrating empirical demand data for over 2,000 US households across 17 cities, household-level simulation and optimization models, and downscaled weather data for historic and future climates. We found that climate change will increase the value of rooftop solar to households by up to 19% and increase techno-economically optimal household capacity by up to 25% by the end of the century under a Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario. This increased value is robust across cities, households, future warming scenarios and retail tariff structures. Researchers, installers and policymakers should capture this increasing value to maximize household and system value of rooftop solar.

屋顶太阳能的采用对于住宅脱碳至关重要，并且取决于其对家庭的价值。气候变化可能会通过影响屋顶太阳能发电和冷却需求来影响屋顶太阳能的价值，但没有研究量化这种影响。在这项研究中，我们通过整合 17 个城市 2,000 多个美国家庭的经验需求数据、家庭层面的模拟和优化模型以及缩小规模的天气数据，量化了气候变化对屋顶太阳能价值和技术经济最优容量的家庭层面影响。历史和未来的气候。我们发现，在代表性集中途径 4.5 情景下，到本世纪末，气候变化将使屋顶太阳能对家庭的价值增加高达 19%，并将技术经济最优的家庭容量增加高达 25%。这种增加的价值在城市、家庭、未来变暖情景和零售关税结构中都很强劲。研究人员、安装人员和政策制定者应该抓住这一不断增长的价值，以最大限度地提高屋顶太阳能的家庭和系统价值。