Exploring the characteristics of vegetation dynamics and quantitatively analyzing the potential drivers and the strength of their interactions are of great significance to regional ecological environmental protection and sustainable development. Therefore, based on the 2000–2022 MODIS NDVI dataset, supplemented by climatic, topographic, surface cover, and anthropogenic data for the same period, the Sen+Mann–Kendall trend analysis, coefficient of variation, and Hurst exponent were employed to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics and trends of NDVI in Hubei Province, and a partial correlation analysis and geographical detector were used to explore the strength of the influence of driving factors on the spatial differentiation of NDVI in vegetation and the underlying mechanisms of interaction. The results showed that (1) the mean NDVI value of vegetation in Hubei Province was 0.762 over 23 years, with an overall increasing trend and fluctuating upward at a rate of 0.01/10a (p < 0.005); geospatially, there is a pattern of “low east and high west”; the spatial change in NDVI shows a trend of “large-scale improvement in the surrounding hills and mountains and small-scale degradation in the middle plains”; it also presents the spatial fluctuation characteristics of “uniform distribution in general, an obvious difference between urban and rural areas, and a high fluctuation of rivers and reservoirs”, (2) the future trend of NDVI in 70.76% of the region in Hubei Province is likely to maintain the same trend as that of the 2000–2022 period, with 70.78% of the future development being benign and dominated by sustained improvement, and (3) a combination of partial correlation analysis and geographical detector analysis of the drivers of vegetation NDVI change shows that land cover type and soil type are the main drivers; the interactions affecting the distribution and change characteristics of NDVI vegetation all showed two-factor enhancement or nonlinear enhancement relationships. This study contributes to a better understanding of the change mechanisms in vegetation NDVI in Hubei Province, providing support for differentiated ecological protection and project implementation.

中文翻译：

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2000-2022年湖北省NDVI时空演变特征及驱动力分析

探究植被动态特征并定量分析其潜在驱动因素及其相互作用的强度，对于区域生态环境保护和可持续发展具有重要意义。因此，基于2000-2022年MODIS NDVI数据集，辅以同期气候、地形、地表覆盖和人为数据，采用Sen+Mann-Kendall趋势分析、变异系数和Hurst指数来检验运用偏相关分析和地理探测器，探讨湖北省NDVI时空特征和趋势，探讨驱动因素对植被NDVI空间分异的影响强度及交互作用机制。结果表明：（1）23年来湖北省植被NDVI平均值为0.762，总体呈上升趋势，并以0.01/10a的速率向上波动（p < 0.005）；地理空间上呈现“东低西高”的格局； NDVI空间变化呈现“周边丘陵山地大范围改善、中部平原小范围退化”的趋势；呈现“总体分布均匀、城乡差异明显、河流水库波动较大”的空间波动特征，（2）湖北省70.76%区域NDVI未来趋势很可能保持与2000-2022年期间相同的趋势，未来发展有70.78%是良性的，以持续改善为主；(3)偏相关分析和地理探测器分析相结合的植被驱动因素NDVI变化表明土地覆盖类型和土壤类型是主要驱动因素；影响NDVI植被分布和变化特征的交互作用均呈现双因素增强或非线性增强关系。本研究有助于更好地认识湖北省植被NDVI变化机制，为差异化生态保护和项目实施提供支撑。