The serious problem of soil erosion not only has a profound impact on people’s lives but also results in a series of ecological and environmental challenges. To determine the impact of changes in land use type on soil erosion in the urban agglomeration on the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, this study commences by employing the InVEST-SDR (integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs–sediment delivery ratio) model to calculate soil erosion levels spanning from 2000 to 2020. Subsequently, it forecasts land use and land cover (LULC) conditions for the year 2030 under three scenarios: Q1 (natural development), Q2 (ecological protection), and Q3 (economic priority). This projection is accomplished through the integration of a coupled Markov chain and multi-objective planning model (MOP) alongside patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models. Ultimately, based on these outcomes, the study predicts soil erosion levels for the year 2030. There has been a consistent decline in soil erosion from 2000 to 2020 with high-intensity erosion concentrated in the Tianshan Mountain region. Grasslands, glaciers, and permafrost are identified as the most erosion-prone land types in the study area, with forests exhibiting the highest capacity for soil retention. Converting from grassland and barren land to forest within the same area results in a substantial reduction in soil erosion, specifically by 27.3% and 46.3%, respectively. Furthermore, the transformation from barren land to grassland also leads to a noteworthy 19% decrease in soil erosion. Over the past two decades, the study area has witnessed a significant decline in the area of grasslands, with a notable shift towards barren and impervious surfaces due to economic development and mining activities. The three predicted scenarios depict significant expansion towards barren land, grassland, and impervious area, respectively. Soil erosion decreases under different shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios relative to 2020. There is an increase in soil erosion in the Q1 scenario and in the Q3 scenario, whereas the amount of soil erosion in the Q2 scenario exhibits a continued decrease when only the effect of land change on soil erosion is considered. Persistently rapid economic development can exacerbate soil erosion problems, underscoring the need to find a balance between economic growth and ecological conservation. As economic expansion slows down, greater emphasis should be placed on environmental protection to maintain ecological stability.

中文翻译：

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天山北坡城市群土地利用转变对水土流失的影响

严重的水土流失问题不仅深刻影响人民生活，也带来一系列生态环境挑战。为了确定天山北坡城市群土地利用类型变化对土壤侵蚀的影响，本研究首先采用InVEST-SDR（生态系统服务综合评估和权衡-输沙比）模型，计算2000年至2020年的土壤侵蚀水平。随后，它在Q1（自然发展）、Q2（生态保护）和Q3（经济优先）三种情景下预测2030年的土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）状况。该预测是通过耦合马尔可夫链和多目标规划模型（MOP）以及斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型的集成来完成的。最终，根据这些结果，研究预测了2030年的水土流失水平。从2000年到2020年，水土流失持续减少，高强度侵蚀集中在天山地区。草原、冰川和永久冻土被确定为研究区域最容易遭受侵蚀的土地类型，其中森林表现出最高的土壤保持能力。同一地区内的草地和荒地退耕还林可大幅减少水土流失，分别减少 27.3% 和 46.3%。此外，从贫瘠土地到草原的转变也导致水土流失显着减少了19%。过去二十年来，由于经济发展和采矿活动，研究区的草地面积显着减少，明显转向贫瘠和不透水的地表。三种预测情景分别描述了向贫瘠土地、草地和不透水地区的显着扩张。相对于 2020 年，不同共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景下的土壤侵蚀量有所减少。Q1 情景和 Q3 情景中的土壤侵蚀量有所增加，而 Q2 情景中的土壤侵蚀量则呈现出持续减少的趋势。仅考虑土地变化对土壤侵蚀的影响。经济持续快速发展会加剧水土流失问题，需要在经济增长和生态保护之间找到平衡。在经济增速放缓的情况下，应更加重视环境保护，维护生态稳定。