On the path to climate neutrality, global production locations and trade patterns of basic materials might change due to the heterogeneous availability of renewable electricity. Here we estimate the ‘renewables pull’, that is, the energy-cost savings, for varying depths of relocation for three key tradable energy-intensive industrial commodities: steel, urea and ethylene. For an electricity-price difference of €40 MWh⁻¹, we find respective relocation savings of 18%, 32% and 38%, which might, despite soft factors in the private sector, lead to green relocation. Conserving today’s production patterns by shipping hydrogen is substantially costlier, whereas trading intermediate products could save costs while keeping substantial value creation in renewable-scarce importing regions. In renewable-scarce regions, a societal debate on macroeconomic, industrial and geopolitical implications is needed, potentially resulting in selective policies of green-relocation protection.

在实现气候中和的道路上，由于可再生电力的可用性不均匀，全球生产地点和基本材料的贸易模式可能会发生变化。在这里，我们估算了三种主要可贸易能源密集型工业商品（钢铁、尿素和乙烯）不同深度搬迁的“可再生能源拉力”，即能源成本节省。对于 40 MWh ^-1的电价差，我们发现搬迁节省分别为 18%、32% 和 38%，尽管私营部门存在软因素，这可能会导致绿色搬迁。通过运输氢气来维持当今的生产模式的成本要高得多，而贸易中间产品可以节省成本，同时在可再生能源稀缺的进口地区保持大量价值创造。在可再生能源稀缺地区，需要就宏观经济、工业和地缘政治影响进行社会辩论，这可能会导致有选择性的绿色搬迁保护政策。