Risk assessment plays a crucial role in managing risks associated with systems, products and services. In practical risk assessment, the cautionary principle is widely adopted by individuals to prevent accidents, and the degree of caution varies with the risk level of potential hazardous activities (PHAs). Therefore, it is necessary to explore a sequential risk assessment model integrating the cautionary principle. To this end, we design an improved risk assessment model based on sequential three-way decision (STWD) model and cautionary principle. Firstly, a risk distance measure under probabilistic linguistic environment is proposed to effectively reflect varying degrees of caution when individuals analyzed PHAs of different risk levels. Then, a comprehensive risk weight optimization model is constructed on the consideration of the importance ranking and correlations of risk attributes. Subsequently, STWD and the as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) principle are integrated to build the risk sorting model, and both the risk prioritization and classification of PHAs are obtained from the sequential risk sorting process. Finally, we verify the reliability of our proposed model through an example of a floating offshore wind turbine system. The findings validate the crucial role of cautionary principle in risk assessment.

中文翻译：

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概率语言环境下谨慎原则的序贯三向风险排序模型

风险评估在管理与系统、产品和服务相关的风险方面发挥着至关重要的作用。在实际风险评估中，人们广泛采用谨慎原则来预防事故的发生，并且谨慎程度根据潜在危险活动（PHA）的风险级别而有所不同。因此，有必要探索融合谨慎原则的序贯风险评估模型。为此，我们基于序贯三向决策（STWD）模型和警示原则设计了改进的风险评估模型。首先，提出了概率语言环境下的风险距离测度，以有效反映个体分析不同风险级别的PHA时不同程度的谨慎程度。然后，考虑风险属性的重要性排序和相关性，构建综合风险权重优化模型。随后，整合STWD和尽可能低合理可行（ALARP）原则构建风险排序模型，并从顺序风险排序过程中获得PHA的风险优先级和分类。最后，我们通过浮动海上风力涡轮机系统的示例验证了所提出模型的可靠性。研究结果证实了谨慎原则在风险评估中的关键作用。