Cascading disasters induced by earthquakes amplify the severity of the initial impact on environment. Although decisionmakers may face uncertainty, an effective mitigation strategy is critical in environmental management. We propose an earthquake-induced cascading disaster mitigation–Bayesian decision network (ECDM-BDN) model to assess pre-disaster mitigating strategies under limited budgets from the perspective of systematic thinking. This model graphically represents the complex relationship among various variables in a seismic hazard system and resistance system based on disaster system theory. It can predict the triggering of cascading events through probabilistic reasoning and identify the key variable accountable for the range of outputs observed through sensitivity analysis. In addition, cost–benefit analyses are carried out by combining Bayesian decision network utility nodes and dynamic programming to obtain a balance between costs and benefits in the context of limited budgets. An earthquake-induced liquefaction served as a case study to demonstrate the proposed model’s effectiveness. Experimental results indicate that the ECDM-BDN model can balance the costs and effects of each pre-disaster mitigating strategy as well as select the optimal one according to the utility value. The proposed model can perform a “white-box” decision-making process, which is expected to guide earthquake-induced cascading event pre-disaster mitigation in cases of limited budgets.

中文翻译：

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基于贝叶斯决策网络的地震级联事件灾前减灾模型，以在有限预算下平衡成本和收益

地震引发的连锁灾害加剧了最初对环境影响的严重性。尽管决策者可能面临不确定性，但有效的缓解策略对于环境管理至关重要。我们提出了地震级联减灾-贝叶斯决策网络（ECDM-BDN）模型，从系统思维的角度评估有限预算下的灾前减灾策略。该模型基于灾害系统理论，图形化地表达了地震灾害系统和抗震系统中各变量之间的复杂关系。它可以通过概率推理预测级联事件的触发，并通过敏感性分析识别导致观察到的输出范围的关键变量。此外，结合贝叶斯决策网络效用节点和动态规划进行成本效益分析，在有限预算的情况下获得成本与效益的平衡。地震引起的液化作为案例研究来证明所提出模型的有效性。实验结果表明，ECDM-BDN模型能够平衡各种灾前减灾策略的成本和效果，并根据效用价值选择最优的减灾策略。该模型可以执行“白盒”决策过程，有望在预算有限的情况下指导地震引发的连锁事件灾前减灾。