In spite of three-year pandemic time caused by Covid-19, the trend and impact of the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 remain unclear. For newly emerging variants, it is still hard to predict how possibly they could impact the pandemic/endemic course. The spreading of highly transmissible variant XBB.1.5 and JN.1 has brought many questions. Could the high transmission ability of such variant lead to a different global spreading pattern compared to other previously existing variants of concern (VOCs)? How that may possibly affect the further evolution of SARS-CoV-2? This study aimed to explore the evolution course of SARS-CoV-2 variants, with focus on VOCs. The investigation was carried out through integration of multiple virus genomic epidemiology approaches. Phylogeny and phylodynamic analyses were used to investigate dynamic changes of virus evolution course. Through this study, an overview check of the evolution events of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs, including the alpha variant, delta variant and omicron variant, has been performed, and the further course of evolution has been predicted, especially taking the potential impact of the spreading of XBB.1.5 and JN.1 into consideration. Furthermore, the early spreading pattern of XBB.1.5 was compared with the early spreading patterns of BQ.1.1 to investigate the impact of evolution on virus spreading pattern. The information acquired through this study provided insights into the effect of SARS-CoV-2 evolution on spreading pattern and the potential impact of the spreading of XBB.1.5 and JN.1 on the further evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

中文翻译：

---

高传染性 Omicron 变种 XBB.1.5 和 JN.1 的传播对 SARS-CoV-2 进化的潜在影响

尽管 Covid-19 造成的大流行已持续三年，但 SARS-CoV-2 的演变趋势和影响仍不清楚。对于新出现的变种，仍然很难预测它们如何影响大流行/地方病的进程。高传染性变种XBB.1.5和JN.1的传播带来了许多问题。与其他先前存在的关注变体（VOC）相比，这种变体的高传播能力是否会导致不同的全球传播模式？这可能如何影响 SARS-CoV-2 的进一步进化？本研究旨在探索 SARS-CoV-2 变异体的进化过程，重点关注挥发性有机化合物。该调查是通过整合多种病毒基因组流行病学方法进行的。利用系统发育和系统动力学分析来研究病毒进化过程的动态变化。通过这项研究，对 SARS-CoV-2 VOC 的进化事件（包括 α 变体、δ 变体和 omicron 变体）进行了概述检查，并预测了进一步的进化过程，特别是考虑到考虑XBB.1.5和JN.1的传播。此外，将XBB.1.5的早期传播模式与BQ.1.1的早期传播模式进行比较，以研究进化对病毒传播模式的影响。通过本研究获得的信息深入了解了 SARS-CoV-2 进化对传播模式的影响以及 XBB.1.5 和 JN.1 的传播对 SARS-CoV-2 进一步进化的潜在影响。