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Supply chain cash-flow bullwhip effect: An analytical model for working capital variance propagation Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2024-03-31 Chintan Patil, Vittaldas V. Prabhu
This research article probes the cash-flow bullwhip effect (CFB), a phenomenon precipitating an increase in the fluctuations of working capital within supply chains. A novel analytical model is pro...
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Wavelet decomposition-based multi-stage feature engineering and optimized ensemble classifier for stock market prediction Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2024-03-20 Satya Verma, Satya Prakash Sahu, Tirath Prasad Sahu
Expanded feature engineering to handle complex and noisy stock data is not much explored in financial forecasting. Along with feature engineering, hyperparameter tuning is also important. This pape...
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Letter from the editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Heather Nachtmann
Published in The Engineering Economist: A Journal Devoted to the Problems of Capital Investment (Vol. 69, No. 1, 2024)
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Fuzzy activity-based costing: An investment evaluation approach for management information system of a smart factory Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Kung-Jeng Wang, Melissa T. A. Simarmata
The investment in a smart manufacturing factory with corresponding management information systems is strategic, complex, and costly. This paper aims to develop a cost estimation framework for a sma...
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A deterministic economic model of optimal asset scrapping under the effects of taxes and inflation Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2024-02-19 Nattawoot Koowattanatianchai, Michael B. Charles, Michael A. Kortt
This study investigates optimal asset scrapping conditions under taxation and inflation by adjusting Koowattanatianchai and Charles’s (2015) model on optimal asset duration, which omits the scrappi...
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Letter from the editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-12-13 Heather Nachtmann
Published in The Engineering Economist: A Journal Devoted to the Problems of Capital Investment (Vol. 68, No. 4, 2023)
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Managing a High Uncertainty Scenario through a Real Option Assessment: Evidence from a Copper Concentrate Trader Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-12-13 Francisco J. Díaz-Borrego, Félix Jiménez Naharro, María del Mar Miras-Rodríguez
Commodity markets are highly volatile markets where uncertainty management is critical for success. Certain commodities, such as copper concentrates, experience even higher levels of volatility and...
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The column generation approach to the mean-risk model for the portfolio selection problem with spillover risk aversion Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-11-23 Hwayong Choi, Chungmok Lee, Sungsoo Park
In this article, we propose extensions of the general mean-risk portfolio selection models to limit the spillover effect of risk. We use the conditional value at risk (CoVaR) as a measure to identi...
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Investor expectations and the AIRR model Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-09-10 Morris G. Danielson
The two-stage growth model (Danielson, 1998) empowers analysts to quantify the growth expectations supporting a firm’s stock price. This article merges that two-stage growth model with the AIRR mod...
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Letter from the editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-09-05 Heather Nachtmann
Published in The Engineering Economist: A Journal Devoted to the Problems of Capital Investment (Vol. 68, No. 3, 2023)
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Introducing a real option framework for EVA/MVA analysis Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-08-28 Tom Arnold, Timothy Falcon Crack, Cassandra D. Marshall, Adam Schwartz
The importance of including real option analysis (ROA) in traditional net present value (NPV) analysis has been demonstrated in the literature: ROA values the flexibility to defer, expand, contract...
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Avoiding momentum crashes using stochastic mean-CVaR optimization with time-varying risk aversion Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-07-26 Xiaoshi Guo, Sarah M. Ryan
Abstract In occasions called momentum crashes, the usually effective cross-sectional momentum strategy for financial asset allocation produces drastically negative returns. We develop a stochastic mean-risk optimization model featuring CVaR to control the risk, dynamically adjusted CVaR tail probability and objective function weight, and return scenarios generated by hybrid moment-matching. In a 95-year
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Letter from the editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-05-16 Heather Nachtmann
Published in The Engineering Economist: A Journal Devoted to the Problems of Capital Investment (Vol. 68, No. 2, 2023)
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The S curve: A dynamic view of in ERP evaluation Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-05-13 Liang-Hong Wu, Khire Rushikesh Ulhas, Kim Hua Tan, Liangchuan Wu
Abstract Previous Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) evaluation methods using closed-form solutions have ignored the unique characteristics of ERP’s life cycle. We propose a lifecycle model based on simulation and stochastic processes to capture and evaluate ERP’s value, including additional key factors. Our results show that accounting for the life cycle, ERP value differs from traditional wisdom
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Optimization-based tail risk hedging of the S&P 500 index Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-05-08 Yuehuan He, Roy Kwon
Abstract In this paper, we present a mixed risk-return optimization framework for selecting long put option positions for hedging the tail risk of investments in the S&P 500 index. A tractable formulation is developed by constructing hypothetical portfolios that are constantly rolling put options. Variance and sample CVaR are used as risk measures. The models are tested against out-of-sample historical
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Economic Feasibility Case Study of Developing a Salt Production Plant Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-05-04 Makhfud Efendy, Muhammad Syarif, Nizar Amir, Rachmad Hidayat
Abstract Indonesia is a net salt importer with plans to eliminate salt import dependency through the industry’s development and collaboration with higher education institutions. Considering net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), benefit–cost ratio (B/C ratio), and return on investment (ROI), this case study analyzes the economic feasibility of developing a mini salt production plant
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Intraday trend prediction of stock indices with machine learning approaches Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-05-02 Pan Tang, Xin Tang, Wentao Yu
Abstract In recent years, as research at the intersection of machine learning and finance has grown, predicting stock price movements has become a particularly intriguing issue. Current research focuses primarily on using historical data of the previous day to predict stock movements for the following day, whereas fewer studies use the trading day’s opening data to predict market movements for the
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Letter from the editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-03-31
Published in The Engineering Economist: A Journal Devoted to the Problems of Capital Investment (Vol. 68, No. 1, 2023)
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Decomposed fuzzy cost-benefit analysis and an application on ophthalmologic robot selection Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-02-21 Eda Boltürk, Elif Haktanır
Abstract Cost-benefit analysis is a benefit measurement method that compares the cost required to realize the product, service or result with the benefits to be obtained. It allows future earnings to be calculated with the present value of money and different projects can be compared. In this study, the uncertainties of decision maker inputs were reflected in a more realistic way by dealing with the
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On volatile growth: Simple fitting of exponential functions taking into account values of every observation with any signs, applied to readily calculate a novel covariance-invariant CAGR Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-02-16 Wolfgang M. Grimm
Abstract The commonly used compound annual growth rate CAGR does not consider volatility, and its calculation fails for time series beginning or terminating with a zero or negative value, which may be the case for a company’s earnings history. Thus, a modification of the standard definition is proposed, derived from a covariance-invariant mapping of observations to a two-parameter exponential model
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Cash holding management for self-financing phase-able and non-phase-able project portfolio selection and scheduling problems Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2023-02-10 Seyed Mahdi Mirkhorsandi Langaroudi, Hossein Khosravi, Alireza Davoodi, Seyed Mojtaba Movahedifar
Abstract This article presents a novel mathematical model for managing the level of cash reserves for the self-financing phase-able as well as non-phase-able project portfolio selection and scheduling problems. Practically, the executive managers of project-oriented organizations tend to keep cash within their organization to increase their decision-making power. Although this allows managers and investors
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Letter from the editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-12-21
Published in The Engineering Economist: A Journal Devoted to the Problems of Capital Investment (Vol. 67, No. 4, 2022)
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An integrated approach to evaluating inland waterway disruptions using economic interdependence, agent-based, and Bayesian models Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-11-16 Paul M. Johnson, Hiba Baroud, Craig Philip, Mark Abkowitz
Abstract The U.S. inland waterways play a vital role in the domestic economy, but extreme weather events, especially floods, perennially threaten to disrupt their operations. Here, we develop a data-driven approach to analyzing economic risks due to flood closures along the inland waterways that combines agent-based, economic interdependence, and Bayesian modeling. We demonstrate our framework by evaluating
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Optimizing the quality level of raw materials based on material flow cost accounting in a production system with rework Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-09-13 Mehdi Seifbarghy, Mohsen Hamidi, Wichai Chattinnawat
Abstract The concept of Material Flow Cost Accounting (MFCA) was developed by a German textile company in late 1980s through their projects for environmental management. The major objectives of MFCA are to increase transparency of material flow and energy usage along with their environmental and financial impacts. MFCA traces a variety of measures from material productivity metrics to crucial environmental
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Letter from the editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-09-02 Heather Nachtmann
Published in The Engineering Economist: A Journal Devoted to the Problems of Capital Investment (Vol. 67, No. 3, 2022)
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The impact of credit risk on cash-bullwhip in supply chain Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-08-05 Jaehun Sim, Vittaldas V. Prabhu
Abstract Because cash flow is a critical issue for companies, it is important to effectively operate cash flow to mitigate liquidity risks. However, compared with research on the bullwhip effect, few studies have analyzed the effects and causes of the cash-flow bullwhip in the supply chain. None has considered the influence of credit risk on the cash-flow bullwhip effect from downstream to upstream
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Letter from the editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-07-14 Heather Nachtmann
Published in The Engineering Economist: A Journal Devoted to the Problems of Capital Investment (Vol. 67, No. 2, 2022)
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Decisions on capital-constrained supply chains with credit guarantees and bankruptcy costs Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-05-25 Bo Yan, Yanping Liu, Zijie Jin
Abstract A supply chain financing model that the core supplier provides credit guarantee for the capital-constrained retailer to bank loans is concerned. The model takes the credit guarantee, bankruptcy cost, and salvage value of products into account, and analyzes the decision-making behaviors of supply chain participants, including the bank. The optimal decisions of order quantity, wholesale price
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Modified variance incorporating high-order moments in risk measure with Gram-Charlier returns Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-05-24 Bernardo León-Camacho, Andrés Mora-Valencia, Javier Perote
Abstract This paper introduces a new risk measure for portfolio choice and compares its performance with two related metrics, namely the behavioral variance and the modified variance by using a Taylor’s expansion. The methodology for our proposal naturally incorporates investor attitudes to risk related to skewness and kurtosis by assuming a Gram-Charlier return distribution. The so-obtained risk measures
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On a holistic view of supply chain financial performance and strategic position Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-05-23 Chih-Yang Tsai
Abstract Measuring corporate financial performance is an essential task in many supply chain decisions, such as supply chain strategic positioning and partner selection. This study introduces an analytical approach that can quickly scan financial data of many companies and produce a summary measure for each company. The approach offers organizations a less wearing way to obtain a holistic view of all
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First-year undergraduate students’ economic decision outcomes in engineering design Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-04-20 Tugba Karabiyik, Alejandra J. Magana, Brittany A. Newell
Abstract Economic decisions are a crucial part of the engineering design process as designers aim to minimize the cost and maximize the system’s benefits. This study focuses on first-year undergraduate students’ economic decision-making process when they trade off costs and benefits during a design challenge. In addition, we characterized students’ patterns of outcomes derived from economic decisions
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Modeling index tracking portfolio based on stochastic dominance for stock selection Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-04-04 Liangchuan Wu, Yuju Wang, Liang-Hong Wu
Abstract We propose a three-step method using the stochastic dominance (SD) approach on stock filtering to determine the number and candidate stocks in a portfolio. We empirically prove that our model can be used to efficiently construct a partial tracking portfolio and replicate the return of the index. First, the low standard deviation feature is found in the proposed portfolio using SD for the risk
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Letter from the Editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-03-30
(2022). Letter from the Editor. The Engineering Economist: Vol. 67, No. 1, pp. 1-1.
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Gas turbine price projection for n-th plant equipment cost Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-03-17 Fabian Rosner, Dandan Yang, Ashok Rao, Scott Samuelsen
Abstract Historically, gas turbines (GTs) have been engineered for natural gas applications and costs are commonly estimated on a $/kW basis. However, when studying advanced power systems such as solid oxide fuel cell-GT hybrids or other unconventional applications, this commonly used cost basis cannot accurately predict the GT cost under these novel operating conditions, which ultimately leads to
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Real Option-Based decision model for fuel saving devices in transportation vehicles under flexible design Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-01-31 K. Jo Min, John Jackman
Abstract Operations that depend on transportation vehicles experience a high degree of uncertainty in fuel costs. We construct and analyze the engineering economic problem of how to value flexibility when the vehicle design under consideration enables fuel savings in the future by incurring an initial cost for the vehicle to incorporate features that will support future modifications. For a vehicle
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Optimizing the flexible design of hybrid renewable energy systems Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-01-27 Ramin Giahi, Cameron A. MacKenzie, Chao Hu
Abstract Engineering systems often operate for a long period of time under varying conditions. The system should be designed based on the best available information at the time of the decision. Designers should also account for future uncertainties in the initial design of the system. The initial design may or may not change as the future evolves and conditions change. The goal of this study is to
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Case study of an equivalent annual cost model for economic lifetime for construction vehicles under cost uncertainty Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2022-01-20 Mohamad Zarean, Ahmad Reza Sayadi, Amin Alah Mousavi
Abstract Whereas the practical importance of the Economic Lifetime (EL) is well-known, selecting the proper process has always been a dilemma. In this respect, classical methods dating back to one century ago are generally favored, but using them in a data-driven approach still has particular shortcomings. This paper aims to present a Life Cycle Cost (LCC) model determining the EL of a truck while
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Letter from the editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-12-22
(2021). Letter from the editor. The Engineering Economist: Vol. 66, No. 4, pp. 263-264.
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Nominations are being accepted for Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers Wellington Award Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-12-22
(2021). Nominations are being accepted for Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers Wellington Award. The Engineering Economist: Vol. 66, No. 4, pp. 346-346.
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Nominations are being accepted for American Society for Engineering Education National Engineering Economy Teaching Excellence Award Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-12-22
(2021). Nominations are being accepted for American Society for Engineering Education National Engineering Economy Teaching Excellence Award. The Engineering Economist: Vol. 66, No. 4, pp. 347-347.
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Modeling optimal thresholds for minimum traffic guarantee in public–private partnership (PPP) highway projects Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-12-20 Zhenyao Wu, Shinya Hanaoka, Bin Shuai
Abstract Optimal upper and lower thresholds model for traffic guarantee are proposed to optimize the risk allocation between a government and a concessionaire considering the perspective of lenders and the risk tolerances of the participants. In this study, the condition for the lender to provide the loan is that the default probability of the project does not exceed the acceptable maximum default
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The influence of gender-diverse boards on post-audit practices: A UK SME study Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-11-08 Frank Lefley, Petra Marešová, Eva Hamplová, Václav Janeček
Abstract This article extends the project-engineering management/post-audit literature into the field of business ethics and board gender diversity. As a result, it fills an important gap in the literature. Board gender diversity is an important issue with ramifications on corporate decision-making. Based on a sample of 163 UK small-medium enterprises (SMEs), our research shows differences between
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A methodology for temperature option pricing in the equatorial regions Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-11-08 Sergio Cabrales, Rafael Bautista, Isabella Madiedo, María Galindo
Abstract Weather derivatives are financial instruments that can be used by organizations or individuals to hedge risks associated with adverse weather conditions. Weather conditions can directly decrease profits by affecting the volume of sales or costs. This paper develops a methodology for temperature option pricing in equatorial regions. In this approach, temperature is forecast by combining deterministic
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Case study: An assessment of the economic service life of research equipment in the Korean public research institutes Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-10-27 Jeong-Gi Lee, Deok-Joo Lee, Piao Ri, Kyung-Taek Kim, Sung-Joon Park
Abstract Recently, as the effective use of research equipment has been regarded as a prerequisite condition to maximize research and development (R&D) outcomes, the problem of replacing aging or obsolete research equipment has become important. The purpose of this article is to assess the economic life of R&D equipment empirically using data gathered from public R&D institutes in Korea. We developed
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Letter from the editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-08-19
(2021). Letter from the editor. The Engineering Economist: Vol. 66, No. 3, pp. 185-186.
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The levelized cost of energy and regulatory uncertainty in plant lifetimes Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-06-21 David C. Rode, Paul S. Fischbeck
Abstract The levelized cost of energy is commonly used in both policymaking and capital investment decisions. It unitizes capital costs by amortizing them over an assumed asset life. The life of the asset is usually assumed to be known with certainty. But in many electric power applications, the life is both uncertain and subject to regulatory shocks. In these cases, the standard levelized cost of
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Economic service life of equipment under uncertain revenues: A real options approach Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-07-06 Kyung-Taek Kim, Donghyun An, Deok-Joo Lee
Abstract Companies which utilize equipment as a critical manufacturing asset should resolve the problem of economic replacement. In this article, a case study of equipment replacement for an auto parts manufacturer is presented. We derive a formula to calculate the expected service life using a classical binomial real options model under revenue uncertainty. A sensitivity analysis shows that the initial
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Sequel to “partitioning transaction vectors into pure investments”: A new sufficient condition for transactions to have a unique IRR and some results on the distribution of IRRs Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-07-20 James Rutherford Cuthbert
Abstract An article by the same author in The Engineering Economist in 2018 (vol. 63(2), 143–157) proved that any transaction could be uniquely partitioned into a sequence of pure investments with strictly decreasing internal rates of return (IRRs). This article uses that result to prove a new condition for a transaction to have a unique IRR and also gives some information on how the IRRs of a transaction
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Technical note: Modified simple average internal rate of return Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-06-29 Behnam Babaei S. A., Abdollah J. Jassbi
Abstract One of the most attractive indexes to select the best investment decision is internal rate of return (IRR) measure, but it has some significant faults both in practice and theoretically. Multiple attempts have been made to resolve the IRR challenges, but none of them are perfect. This article presents the Modified Simple Average Internal Rate of Return criterion as a profitability index for
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Rebalancing index tracking portfolios with cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-06-25 Eduardo Nesi Bubicz, Tiago Pascoal Filomena, Leonardo Riegel Sant’Anna, Eduardo Bered Fernandes Vieira
Abstract In this study, we use the cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart methodology to regulate index tracking portfolio updates over time, as we seek to make the rebalancing decision endogenous to the portfolio selection problem. We use data from two stock markets (United States and Brazil), and we estimate CUSUM based portfolios as well as portfolios using fixed rebalancing time windows. We also
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Letter from the Editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-05-27
(2021). Letter from the Editor. The Engineering Economist: Vol. 66, No. 2, pp. 89-89.
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Average internal rate of return for risky projects Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-05-12 Gordon Hazen, Carlo Alberto Magni
Abstract The average internal rate of return (AIRR) fixes many deficiencies associated with the traditional internal rate of return (IRR), including apparent inconsistency with net present value (NPV). The AIRR approach breaks down project NPV into scale (the capital invested) and economic efficiency (the AIRR), and maintains NPV consistency for accept/reject decisions. Here we examine extensions of
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Letter from the Editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-04-08 Heather Nachtmann
(2021). Letter from the Editor. The Engineering Economist: Vol. 66, No. 1, pp. 1-2.
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Internal rates of return and shareholder value creation Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-02-08 Carlo Alberto Magni
Abstract We propose a genuinely internal approach to project valuation and decision based on the average Return On Investment (ROI), obtained as the ratio of total operating profit (NOPAT) to total invested capital or, equivalently, as the ratio of net cash flow to total invested capital. The approach presented enables decomposing the economic value created into the project scale (total capital invested)
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Pricing real options based on linear loss functions and conditional value at risk Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-01-11 Kyongsun Kim, Chan S. Park
Abstract The main purpose of this paper is to expand real option analysis out of the realm of pure financial option pricing techniques. To overcome many of the well-known concerns by adopting the financial option pricing techniques for modeling real options problems such as replicating portfolio concept, geometric Brownian motion as underlying stochastic process, and estimating project volatility,
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Pricing real options based on linear loss functions and conditional value at risk Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2021-01-11 Kyongsun Kim, Chan S. Park
Abstract The main purpose of this paper is to expand real option analysis out of the realm of pure financial option pricing techniques. To overcome many of the well-known concerns by adopting the financial option pricing techniques for modeling real options problems such as replicating portfolio concept, geometric Brownian motion as underlying stochastic process, and estimating project volatility,
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Letter from the editor Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2020-12-19 Sarah M. Ryan
(2020). Letter from the editor. The Engineering Economist: Vol. 65, No. 4, pp. 265-265.
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Call for Nominations for the Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers Wellington Award Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2020-12-19
(2020). Call for Nominations for the Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers Wellington Award. The Engineering Economist: Vol. 65, No. 4, pp. 381-381.
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Multi-objective optimization and cost-based output pricing of a standalone hybrid energy system integrated with desalination Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2020-12-12 Xi Luo, Yanfeng Liu, Xiaojun Liu
Abstract The design and operation of hybrid energy systems, which are relevant to remote islands characterized by energy and water supply shortage, have been extensively investigated. However, determining the costs of different system outputs is still a challenging task. In this study, a multi-objective optimization was performed to obtain the optimal design parameters of a hybrid energy system integrated
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Optimal Replacement, Retrofit, and Management of a Fleet of Assets under Regulations of an Emissions Trading System Eng. Econ. (IF 1.2) Pub Date : 2020-12-10 Amir Rajabian, Mageed Ghaleb, Sharareh Taghipour
Abstract This paper presents a model for parallel replacement and improvement for a fleet of assets to minimize both the economic costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions where the emissions are limited by an emissions trading system also known as cap-and-trade. The firm which owns the assets has the options of using, storing, improving, or salvaging them. Different technological types and their performances