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The Seismic Record of Wind in Alaska Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Cade A. Quigley, Michael E. West
Seismic data contains a continuous record of wind influenced by different factors across the frequency spectrum. To assess the influences of wind on ground motion, we use colocated wind and seismic data from 110 stations in the Alaska component of the EarthScope Transportable Array. We compare seismic probability power spectral densities and wind speed and direction during 2018 to develop a quantitative
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JointNet: A Multimodal Deep Learning‐Based Approach for Joint Inversion of Rayleigh Wave Dispersion and Ellipticity Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Xiang Huang, Ziye Yu, Weitao Wang, Fang Wang
Joint inversion of multitype datasets is an effective approach for high‐precision subsurface imaging. We present a new deep learning‐based method to jointly invert Rayleigh wave phase velocity and ellipticity into shear‐wave velocity of the crust and uppermost mantle. A multimodal deep neural network (termed JointNet) is designed to analyze these two independent physical parameters and generate outputs
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SKS Polarization Anomalies Due to the Coriolis Force Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Neala Creasy, Ebru Bozdağ, Daniel A. Frost, Roel Snieder
The Earth’s Coriolis force has been well‐known to impact surface waves and normal modes, which is essential to accurately interpret these waves. However, the Coriolis force on body waves has been assumed to be negligible and mostly ignored. It has been previously shown that the Coriolis force impacts polarizations of shear waves, whereas the wavefronts remain unaffected. We expand on the potential
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Source Scaling of Simulated Dynamic Ruptures Using Hierarchical Slip‐Weakening Patch Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Hiroyuki Goto
In seismic hazard assessment, generating a source rupture process consistent with the physics of natural earthquakes is an important issue. This study focuses on the source model with hierarchical patches of slip‐weakening distance Dc proposed by Ide and Aochi (2005), which can satisfy the Gutenberg–Richter law. To investigate how the model works, characteristics of the simulated dynamic rupture process
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Dynamic Rupture Models of the 2016 ML 5.8 Gyeongju, South Korea, Earthquake, Constrained by a Kinematic Rupture Model and Seismic Waveform Data Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Seok Goo Song, Benchun Duan
The ML 5.8 earthquake that jolted Gyeongju in southeastern Korea in 2016 was the country’s largest inland event since instrumental seismic monitoring began in 1978. We developed dynamic rupture models of the Gyeongju event constrained by near‐source ground‐motion data using full 3D spontaneous dynamic rupture modeling with the slip‐weakening friction law. Based on our results, we propose two simple
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Kinematic Rupture Model of the 6 February 2023 Mw 7.8 Türkiye Earthquake from a Large Set of Near‐Source Strong‐Motion Records Combined with GNSS Offsets Reveals Intermittent Supershear Rupture Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Bertrand Delouis, Martijn van den Ende, Jean‐Paul Ampuero
The 2023 Mw 7.8 southeast Türkiye earthquake was recorded by an unprecedentedly large set of strong‐motion stations very close to its rupture, opening the opportunity to observe the rupture process of a large earthquake with fine resolution. Here, the kinematics of the earthquake source are inferred by finite‐source inversion based on strong‐motion records and coseismic offsets from permanent Global
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Imaging the Sources of the March 2021 Seismic Sequence in Thessaly Basin (Central Greece) from Kinematic Slip Inversion and Backprojection of Waveform Envelopes Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Nikolaos Vavlas, Ioannis Fountoulakis, Zafeiria Roumelioti, Christos P. Evangelidis, Anastasia Kiratzi
In March 2021, a series of three moderate events with moment magnitudes Mw 6.3, 6.0, and 5.5 occurred within a span of 10 days in northern Thessaly, Greece, resulting in a stop–start pattern. The moment tensors (MTs) obtained from the events suggested normal faulting along distinct yet adjacent southeast–northwest‐trending faults, indicating a sequential triggering process. We applied two methods to
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Stress State and Earthquake Triggering on the Outer Rise of the Southern Vanuatu Subduction Zone, Southern New Caledonia Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Shao‐Jinn Chin, Rupert Sutherland, Martha K. Savage, Julien Collot, Olivier Monge, John Townend
An analysis of earthquakes recorded in southern New Caledonia (SNC) over 14 months during 2018–2019 reveals focal mechanisms consistent with a normal‐faulting stress state. The minimum principal stress is perpendicular to the Vanuatu subduction zone (VSZ), which is 200 km away, and is highly oblique to the local topographic ridge of New Caledonia, which may induce additional tension. An Mw 7.5 earthquake
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Deep Learning‐Based Microseismic Detection and Location Reveal the Seismic Characteristics and Causes in the Xiluodu Reservoir, China Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Ziyi Li, Lianqing Zhou, Mengqiao Duan, Cuiping Zhao
The Xiluodu reservoir, as the third reservoir developed in the lower Jinsha River, is the fourth largest reservoir in the world in terms of power generation. It is located in an area of historically high seismic intensity. A large amount of seismic activity has occurred in the reservoir area because the reservoir was impounded in 2013, but the mechanism of seismogenesis is still not clear. In this
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Achieving a Comprehensive Microseismicity Catalog through a Deep‐Learning‐Based Workflow: Applications in the Central Ecuadorian Subduction Zone Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Alexander Wickham‐Piotrowski, Yvonne Font, Marc Regnier, Bertrand Delouis, Olivier Lengliné, Monica Segovia, Quentin Bletery
Although seismological networks have densified along the Ecuadorian active margin since 2010, visual phase reading, ensuring high arrival times quality, is more and more time‐consuming and becomes impossible to handle for the very large amount of recorded seismic traces, even when preprocessed with a detector. In this article, we calibrate a deep‐learning‐based automatized workflow to acquire accurate
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Relocation of the Seismicity of the Caucasus Region Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 István Bondár, Tea Godoladze, Eric Cowgill, Gurban Yetirmishli, Stephen C. Myers, Irakli Gunia, Albert Buzaladze, Barbara Czecze, Tuna Onur, Rengin Gök, Andrea Chiang
Our objective is to improve the view of the seismicity in the Caucasus region using instrumental data between 1951 and 2019. To create a comprehensive catalog, we combine the bulletins of local agencies and the International Seismological Centre, and use an advanced single‐event location algorithm, iLoc, to obtain better locations. We show that relocations with iLoc, using travel‐time predictions from
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Seasonality of California Central Coast Microseisms Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Hannah S. Shabtian, Zachary C. Eilon, Toshiro Tanimoto
Linear scattering of ocean wave energy at the ocean–continent transition structure causes the primary microseism at a period of 14 s. Subsequent nonlinear wave–wave interactions produce the secondary microseism signal at half the primary microseism period (Longuet‐Higgins, 1950; Haubrich et al., 1963). We use three years (2018–2022) of seismic data from an ongoing microarray deployment in the UC Santa
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Potential Poroelastic Triggering of the 2020 M 5.0 Mentone Earthquake in the Delaware Basin, Texas, by Shallow Injection Wells Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Xinyu Tan, Semechah K. Y. Lui
The Delaware basin in Texas, one of the largest oil and gas production sites in the United States, has been impacted by widespread seismicity in recent years. The M 5.0 earthquake that occurred in March 2020 near the town of Mentone is one of the largest induced earthquakes recorded in this region. Characterizing the source parameters and triggering mechanism of this major event is imperative to assess
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Evaluating the Aftershock Duration of Induced Earthquakes Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Kayla A. Kroll, Michael R. Brudzinski
As the carbon sequestration community prepares to scale up the number and size of commercial operations, the need for tools and methods to assess and mitigate risks associated with these operations becomes increasingly important. One outstanding question is whether aftershocks of induced events decay quickly after injection operations cease or if aftershock activity persists for hundreds of years before
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Testing and Design of Discriminants for Local Seismic Events Recorded during the Redmond Salt Mine Monitoring Experiment Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Rigobert Tibi, Nathan Downey, Ronald Brogan
The Redmond Salt Mine (RSM) Monitoring Experiment in Utah was designed to record seismoacoustic data at distances less than 50 km for algorithm testing and development. During the experiment from October 2017 to July 2019, six broadband seismic stations were operating at a time, with three of them having fixed locations for the duration, whereas the three other stations were moved to different locations
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Significance of Pulse‐Like Ground Motions and Directivity Effects in Moderate Earthquakes: The Example of the Mw 6.1 Gölyaka‐Düzce Earthquake on 23 November 2022 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Elif Türker, Ming‐Hsuan Yen, Marco Pilz, Fabrice Cotton
The 1400 km long North Anatolian Fault Zone in Türkiye runs through numerous densely populated regions, including the city of Düzce that was recently hit by an Mw 6.1 earthquake on 23 November 2022. This was the first moderate event in the region after the devastating Mw 7.2 earthquake in 1999, which cost the lives of over 700 people. Despite its moderate size, the earthquake caused unexpected severe
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Ground‐Motion Variability for Ruptures on Rough Faults Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Jagdish Chandra Vyas, Martin Galis, P. Martin Mai
Fault roughness influences earthquake rupture dynamics, seismic energy radiation, and, hence, resulting ground motion and its variability. Using 3D dynamic rupture simulations considering a range of rough‐fault realizations, we investigate the effects of rupture complexity caused by fault roughness on ground‐motion variability, that is, the variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and velocity
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Potential Seismic Hazard in Seoul, South Korea: A Comprehensive Analysis of Geology, Seismic, and Geophysical Field Observations, Historical Earthquakes, and Strong Ground Motions Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Byeongwoo Kim, Tae‐Kyung Hong, Junhyung Lee, Seongjun Park, Jeongin Lee
A series of moderate‐size (Mw 4.0–6.0) earthquakes occurred in South Korea after the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku–Oki megathrust earthquake, incurring public concern about possible occurrence of devastating earthquakes in Seoul—the capital city of South Korea, where historical seismic damage was reported. The seismicity is distributed in Seoul, being dominated by strike‐slip earthquakes. The fault planes are
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Construction of a Ground‐Motion Logic Tree through Host‐to‐Target Region Adjustments Applied to an Adaptable Ground‐Motion Prediction Model: An Addendum Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 David M. Boore
Boore et al. (2022; hereafter, Bea22) described adjustments to a host‐region ground‐motion prediction model (GMPM) for use in hazard calculations in a target region, using Chiou and Youngs (2014; hereafter, CY14) as the host‐region model. This article contains two modifications to the Bea22 procedures for the host‐to‐target adjustments, one for the source and one for the anelastic attenuation function
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Ground‐Motion Model for Significant Duration Constrained by Seismological Simulations Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Camilo Pinilla‐Ramos, Norman Abrahamson, Van‐Bang Phung, Robert Kayen, Pablo Castellanos‐Nash
A duration ground‐motion model for crustal earthquakes based on the normalized Arias intensity (IA) is developed. Two sets of seismological simulations are used to constrain the form and scaling of the duration model. Simulations using a 3D crustal model show that an additive model for the source, path, and site terms captures the physical behavior of duration better than a multiplicative model for
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A Novel VS30 Prediction Strategy Taking Fluid Saturation into Account and a New VS30 Model of Türkiye Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Hakan Bora Okay, Atilla Arda Özacar
The averaged shear‐wave velocity of the top 30 m (VS30) is widely used in earthquake engineering as a proxy to represent site responses. However, the spatial availability of measured VS30 is rather limited, and, so far, a region‐specific VS30 model that would aid prediction of strong ground motions is not yet developed for Türkiye. In this study, a new strategy for predicting VS30 is developed using
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Hydrologic Impacts of a Strike‐Slip Fault Zone: Insights from Joint 3D Body‐Wave Tomography of Rock Valley Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Jennifer L. Harding, Leiph A. Preston, Miles A. Bodmer
The Rock Valley fault zone (RVFZ), an intraplate strike‐slip fault zone in the southern Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), hosted a series of very shallow (<3 km) earthquakes in 1993. The RVFZ may also have hydrological significance within the NNSS, potentially playing a role in regional groundwater flow, but there is a lack of local hydrological data. In the Spring of 2021, we collected active‐source
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Evidence of Seattle Fault Earthquakes from Patterns in Deep‐Seated Landslides Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Erich Herzig, Alison Duvall, Adam Booth, Ian Stone, Erin Wirth, Sean LaHusen, Joseph Wartman, Alex Grant
Earthquake‐induced landslides can record information about the seismic shaking that generated them. In this study, we present new mapping, Light Detection and Ranging‐derived roughness dating, and analysis of over 1000 deep‐seated landslides from the Puget Lowlands of Washington, U.S.A., to probe the landscape for past Seattle fault earthquake information. With this new landslide inventory, we observe
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A Population‐Based Performance Evaluation of the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System for M 9 Megathrust Earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Mika Thompson, J. Renate Hartog, Erin A. Wirth
We evaluate the potential performance of the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for M 9 megathrust earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) using synthetic seismograms from 30 simulated M 9 earthquake scenarios on the Cascadia subduction zone. The timeliness and accuracy of source estimates and effectiveness of ShakeAlert alert contours are evaluated with a station‐based alert classification
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Wavefield Modeling and Analysis of Lightning Quakes Measured by a Distributed Acoustic Sensing Array Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Nolan Roth, Tieyuan Zhu, Rafal Czarny, Yongxin Gao
Lightning‐induced seismic waves, termed “lightning quakes,” are frequent natural sources in many storm‐prone regions. Lightning quakes have been clearly observed in numerous environments by both seismic and acoustic instruments, for example, by distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) array. Despite these numerous observations, the physical nature of lightning quake wavefields detected by ground‐based arrays
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Discrimination of Seismic Events in the North Korean Test Site and Surrounding Area Using MDAC Spectral Ratio Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Shiban Ding, Hongchun Wang, Haofeng Zhu, Henglei Xu, Xiong Xu
An event of ML 3.7 occurred near the Punggye‐ri nuclear test site on 11 February 2022. It was stronger than the known historical earthquakes around the North Korean test site (NKTS). How to accurately identify whether this event and future events near NKTS are explosions or natural earthquakes is worth paying attention to. For moderate and small earthquakes, the regional P/S spectral ratio has the
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Source Spectra of Pg and Lg Waves from North Korean Nuclear Tests Estimated Using a Nonmodel‐Based Approach Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Ping Jin, Henglei Xu, Shiban Ding, Weiping Wang, Haofeng Zhu
In this article, we demonstrate that source spectra for regional seismic waves generated by an underground explosion may be uniquely extracted using a simple linear regression method between the geometrical spreading corrected displacement spectra and epicentral distances as long as the recording stations are well distributed in distances. Using this method, source spectra of Pg and Lg waves from North
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Comment on “Identification Protocols for Horizontal‐to‐Vertical Spectral Ratio Peaks” by Pengfei Wang, Paolo Zimmaro, Sean K. Ahdi, Alan Yong, and Jonathan P. Stewart Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Yutaka Nakamura
This article, Wang et al. (2023), proposes a peak frequency measurement method for the horizontal‐to‐vertical spectral ratio (HVSR). In addition to its validation, they consider how the peak frequency and peak value of HVSR vary depending on the analyst, the sensor model, and the difference between the targeted seismic motion and microtremor.In contrast, whether using the entire HVSR or focusing on
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Erratum to Reply to “Comment on ‘Sources of Long‐Range Anthropogenic Noise in Southern California and Implications for Tectonic Tremor Detection’ by Asaf Inbal, Tudor Cristea‐Platon, Jean‐Paul Ampuero, Gregor Hillers, Duncan Agnew, and Susan E. Hough” by Allie Hutchison, Yijian Zhou, and Abhijit Ghosh Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Asaf Inbal, Tudor Cristea‐Platon, Jean‐Paul Ampuero, Gregor Hillers, Duncan Agnew
Because of a printing error, the x‐axis labels are missing from figures 8–10 in the reply article of Inbal et al. (2023) to the comment article of Hutchison et al. (2023). This erratum contains the corrected figures labeled here as Figures 1–3.The authors acknowledge that there are no conflicts of interest recorded.
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The Ground‐Motion Characterization Model for the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Brendon A. Bradley, Sanjay S. Bora, Robin L. Lee, Elena F. Manea, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Peter J. Stafford, Gail M. Atkinson, Graeme Weatherill, Jesse Hutchinson, Christopher A. de la Torre, Anne M. Hulsey, Anna E. Kaiser
This article summarizes the ground‐motion characterization (GMC) model component of the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (2022 NZ NSHM). The model development process included establishing a NZ‐specific context through the creation of a new ground‐motion database, and consideration of alternative ground‐motion models (GMMs) that have been historically used in NZ or have been recently
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Panel Review of the USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. Time‐Independent Earthquake Rupture Forecast Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Thomas H. Jordan, Norm Abrahamson, John G. Anderson, Glenn Biasi, Ken Campbell, Tim Dawson, Heather DeShon, Matthew Gerstenberger, Nick Gregor, Keith Kelson, Yajie Lee, Nicolas Luco, Warner Marzocchi, Badie Rowshandel, David Schwartz, Nilesh Shome, Gabriel Toro, Ray Weldon, Ivan Wong
This report documents the assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Rupture Forecast (ERF) Review Panel of the draft ERF for the conterminous United States (CONUS‐ERF23) proposed for the 2023 update of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23). Panel members participated with the ERF Development Team in several verification and validation exercises, including spot checks of the hazard
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Upper Plate and Subduction Interface Deformation Models in the 2022 Revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Russ J. Van Dissen, Kaj M. Johnson, Hannu Seebeck, Laura M. Wallace, Chris Rollins, Jeremy Maurer, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Charles A. Williams, Ian J. Hamling, Andrew Howell, Christopher J. DiCaprio
As part of the 2022 revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022), deformation models were constructed for the upper plate faults and subduction interfaces that impact ground‐shaking hazard in New Zealand. These models provide the locations, geometries, and slip rates of the earthquake‐producing faults in the NZ NSHM 2022. For upper plate faults, two deformation
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New Magnitude–Area Scaling Relations for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Mark Stirling, Michelle Fitzgerald, Bruce Shaw, Clarissa Ross
We develop new magnitude–area scaling relations for application in the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022) and future applications. A total of 18 published relations are selected, comprising the following tectonic and slip types: crustal strike‐slip (seven relations), reverse (two relations), normal (two relations), subduction interface (five relations), and two dip‐slip relations
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Overview of Site Effects and the Application of the 2022 New Zealand NSHM in the Wellington Basin, New Zealand Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Anna Elizabeth Kaiser, Matt P. Hill, Chris de la Torre, Sanjay Bora, Elena Manea, Liam Wotherspoon, Gail M. Atkinson, Robin Lee, Brendon Bradley, Anne Hulsey, Andrew Stolte, Matt Gerstenberger
We provide an overview of the treatment of site effects in the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM), including a case study of basin effects in central Wellington. The NZ NSHM 2022 includes a change in site parameter from subsoil class (NZS class) to VS30. Poor NZ VS30 characterization is a major source of uncertainty in the NSHM; however, advanced site characterization in Wellington
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Testing and Evaluation of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Mark Stirling, Elena Manea, Matt Gerstenberger, Sanjay Bora
We summarize the work that has been done within the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022) to evaluate and test the updated hazard model and its components against observational data. We undertake a two‐phase analysis to learn about the performance of the hazard model with respect to several limited databases. Phase 1 is the evaluation phase, involving multiple efforts to optimize
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Standardizing Earthquake Magnitudes for the 2022 Revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Annemarie Christophersen, Sandra Bourguignon, David A. Rhoades, Trevor I. Allen, John Ristau, Jerome Salichon, John Christopher Rollins, John Townend, Matthew C. Gerstenberger
The 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model—Te Tauira Matapae Pūmate Rū i Aotearoa—requires an earthquake catalog that ideally measures earthquake size in moment magnitude. However, regional moment tensor solutions, which allow the calculation of moment magnitude MwNZ, were introduced in New Zealand only in 2007. The most reported magnitude in the national New Zealand earthquake
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The Seismicity Rate Model for the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Russ Van Dissen, Chris Rollins, Chris DiCaprio, Kiran K. S. Thingbaijim, Sanjay Bora, Chris Chamberlain, Annemarie Christophersen, Genevieve L. Coffey, Susan M. Ellis, Pablo Iturrieta, Kaj M. Johnson, Nicola J. Litchfield, Andy Nicol, Kevin R. Milner, Sepi J. Rastin, David Rhoades, Hannu Seebeck, Bruce E. Shaw, Mark W. Stirling, Laura Wallace, Trevor I. Allen, Brendon A. Bradley
A seismicity rate model (SRM) has been developed as part of the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model revision. The SRM consists of many component models, each of which falls into one of two classes: (1) inversion fault model (IFM); or (2) distributed seismicity model (DSM). Here we provide an overview of the SRM and a brief description of each of the component models. The upper plate
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The 2023 New Zealand Ground‐Motion Database Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Jesse A. Hutchinson, Chuanbin Zhu, Brendon A. Bradley, Robin L. Lee, Liam M. Wotherspoon, Michael Dupuis, Claudio Schill, Jason Motha, Elena F. Manea, Anna E. Kaiser
This article summarizes the development of the 2023 New Zealand ground‐motion database (NZGMDB). A preceding version was formally used as the central ground‐motion database in the ground‐motion characterization modeling for the 2022 New Zealand (NZ) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) revision. The database contains ground motions for events with a moment magnitude greater than ∼3.0 from the years
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The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. Time‐Independent Earthquake Rupture Forecast Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Alexandra E. Hatem, Peter M. Powers, Fred F. Pollitz, Andrea L. Llenos, Yuehua Zeng, Kaj M. Johnson, Bruce E. Shaw, Devin McPhillips, Jessica Thompson Jobe, Allison M. Shumway, Andrew J. Michael, Zheng‐Kang Shen, Eileen L. Evans, Elizabeth H. Hearn, Charles S. Mueller, Arthur D. Frankel, Mark D. Petersen, Christopher DuRoss, Richard W. Briggs, Morgan T. Page, Justin
We present the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast for the conterminous United States, which gives authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time‐averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes throughout the region. In addition to updating virtually all model components, a major focus has been to provide a better representation of epistemic
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Reply to “Comment on ‘Effect of Style of Faulting on the Orientation of Maximum Horizontal Earthquake Response Spectra’ by Alan Poulos and Eduardo Miranda” by Paul Somerville Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Alan Poulos, Eduardo Miranda
We thank Somerville (2023) for the comment on our article (Poulos and Miranda, 2023), which found that the orientation of maximum horizontal spectral response tends to be close to the transverse orientation with respect to the epicenter of strike‐slip earthquakes. Herein, we respond to the main points of the comment, following the order in which they were made.In the comment, Somerville (2023) mentions
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Introduction to the BSSA Special Issue and SRL Focus Section on Seismic Hazard Models Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Allison L. Bent, P. Martin Mai, John Townend
The recent completion of a fundamental revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (New Zealand NSHM) provided the catalyst for a joint BSSA Special Issue and SRL Focus Section on seismic hazard models worldwide. The approaches to NSHMs in different locations are varied and driven by different expertise, different philosophies, different tectonic environments, and different needs of the
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The 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model: Process, Overview, and Results Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Sanjay Bora, Brendon A. Bradley, Chris DiCaprio, Anna Kaiser, Elena F. Manea, Andy Nicol, Chris Rollins, Mark W. Stirling, Kiran K. S. Thingbaijam, Russ J. Van Dissen, Elizabeth R. Abbott, Gail M. Atkinson, Chris Chamberlain, Annemarie Christophersen, Kate Clark, Genevieve L. Coffey, Chris A. de la Torre, Susan M. Ellis, Jeff Fraser, Kenny Graham, Jonathan Griffin, Ian J.
The 2022 revision of Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022) has involved significant revision of all datasets and model components. In this article, we present a subset of many results from the model as well as an overview of the governance, scientific, and review processes followed by the NZ NSHM team. The calculated hazard from the NZ NSHM 2022 has increased for most of
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Geodetic Strain Rates for the 2022 Update of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Jeremy Maurer, Kaj Johnson, Laura M. Wallace, Ian Hamling, Charles A. Williams, Chris Rollins, Matt Gerstenberger, Russ Van Dissen
Geodetic data in plate boundary zones reflect the accrual of tectonic strain and stress, which will ultimately be released in earthquakes, and so they can provide valuable insights into future seismic hazards. To incorporate geodetic measurements of contemporary deformation into the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022), we derive a range of strain‐rate
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New Zealand Fault‐Rupture Depth Model v.1.0: A Provisional Estimate of the Maximum Depth of Seismic Rupture on New Zealand’s Active Faults Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Susan Ellis, Stephen Bannister, Russ Van Dissen, Donna Eberhart‐Phillips, Carolyn Boulton, Martin Reyners, Rob Funnell, Nick Mortimer, Phaedra Upton, Chris Rollins, Hannu Seebeck
We summarize estimates of the maximum rupture depth on New Zealand’s active faults (“New Zealand Fault‐Rupture Depth Model v.1.0”), as used in the New Zealand Community Fault Model v1.0 and as a constraint for the latest revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022). Rupture depth estimates are based on a combination of two separate model approaches (using different methods
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A Seismogenic Slab Source Model for Aotearoa New Zealand Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Kiran Kumar Singh Thingbaijam, Matt C. Gerstenberger, Chris Rollins, Russ J. Van Dissen, Sepideh J. Rastin, Annemarie Christophersen, John Ristau, Charles A. Williams, Delphine D. Fitzenz, Marco Pagani
Intraslab seismicity within the Hikurangi and Puysegur subduction zones constitutes >50% of recorded (Mw≥4.0 events) earthquakes in Aotearoa New Zealand. Here, we develop a source model for intraslab seismicity using recently augmented datasets including models of subduction interface geometries, an earthquake catalog, and a regional moment tensor catalog. For the areal zones of uniform seismicity
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The Magnitude–Frequency Distributions of Earthquakes in Aotearoa New Zealand and on Adjoining Subduction Zones, Using a New Integrated Earthquake Catalog Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Chris Rollins, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, David A. Rhoades, Sepideh J. Rastin, Annemarie Christophersen, Kiran Kumar S. Thingbaijam, Russell J. Van Dissen, Kenny Graham, Chris DiCaprio, Jeff Fraser
Using a new integrated earthquake catalog for Aotearoa New Zealand (described in a companion article), we estimate the magnitude–frequency distributions (MFDs) of earthquakes in the greater New Zealand region and along the Hikurangi–Kermadec and Puysegur subduction zones. These are key inputs into the seismicity rate model (SRM) component of the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The MFDs
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Accounting for the Variability of Earthquake Rates within Low‐Seismicity Regions: Application to the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Pablo Iturrieta, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Chris Rollins, Russ Van Dissen, Ting Wang, Danijel Schorlemmer
The distribution of earthquakes in time and space is seldom stationary, which could hinder a robust statistical analysis, particularly in low‐seismicity regions with limited data. This work investigates the performance of stationary Poisson and spatially precise forecasts, such as smoothed seismicity models (SSMs), in terms of the available training data. Catalog bootstrap experiments are conducted
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Implementing Non‐Poissonian Forecasts of Distributed Seismicity into the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Pablo Iturrieta, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Chris Rollins, Russ Van Dissen, Ting Wang, Danijel Schorlemmer
Seismicity usually exhibits a non‐Poisson spatiotemporal distribution and could undergo nonstationary processes. However, the Poisson assumption is still deeply rooted in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis models, especially when input catalogs must be declustered to obtain a Poisson background rate. In addition, nonstationary behavior and scarce earthquake records in regions of low seismicity
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Time‐Independent Grid‐Based Forecast Model for M ≥6.0 Earthquakes in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau Using GNSS Strain Rates and Seismicity Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Cong‐Min Wei, Guo‐Jie Meng, Wei‐Wei Wu, Xue‐Liang Chen, Meng Zhang, Guo‐Qiang Zhao, Zhi‐Hua Dong, Yan‐Cong Yang
Earthquake forecasting models play a vital role in earthquake occurrence assessment. Despite improved availability of seismic and geodetic data and processing techniques to produce high‐resolution catalogs and deformation history, the implementation of earthquake forecasting models with seismic and geodetic data remains a challenge. In this study, we utilize seismicity and Global Navigation Satellite
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Subduction Interface Earthquake Rise‐Time Scaling Relations Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Diego R. Cárdenas, Matthew Miller, Gonzalo A. Montalva
The slip duration in a fault plane, also known as the rise time (Tr), is determined in finite‐fault rupture models (FFRMs) through the analysis of seismic source inversions using strong ground‐motion (SGM) records and teleseismic data. For subduction interface earthquakes (megathrust), models exist that provide estimates for Tr values. The finite‐source rupture model database and National Earthquake
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Evaluation of Empirical Ground‐Motion Models for the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Revision Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Robin L. Lee, Brendon A. Bradley, Elena F. Manea, Jesse A. Hutchinson, Sanjay S. Bora
This article presents an evaluation of empirical ground‐motion models (GMMs) for active shallow crustal, subduction interface, and subduction slab earthquakes using a recently developed New Zealand (NZ) ground‐motion database for the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model revision. This study considers both NZ‐specific and global models, which require evaluation to inform of their applicability
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Backbone Ground‐Motion Models for Crustal, Interface, and Slab Earthquakes in New Zealand from Equivalent Point‐Source Concepts Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Gail M. Atkinson
A ground‐motion model (GMM) that strikes a balance between empirical and simulation‐based approaches is developed in support of the 2022 update of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The development follows the backbone approach, comprising a central model to express the median ground motions for earthquakes in New Zealand (NZ), along with upper and lower alternatives to describe its epistemic
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Capturing Directivity in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for New Zealand: Challenges, Implications, and a Machine Learning Approach for Implementation Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Graeme Weatherill, Henning Lilienkamp
The proximity of fast‐slipping crustal faults to urban areas may result in pulse‐like ground motions from rupture directivity, which can contribute to increased levels of damage even for engineered structures. Systematic modeling of directivity within probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) remains challenging to implement at the regional scale, despite the availability of directivity models in
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Hazard Sensitivities Associated with Ground‐Motion Characterization Modeling for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model Revision 2022 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Sanjay S. Bora, Brendon A. Bradley, Elena F. Manea, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Robin L. Lee, Peter J. Stafford, Gail M. Atkinson, Anna Kaiser, Christopher J. DiCaprio, Russell J. Van Dissen
This article summarizes hazard sensitivities associated with the updated ground‐motion characterization modeling (GMCM) scheme adopted in the recent revision of New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022). In terms of impact on ground‐motion hazard, the current GMCM scheme (GMCM 2022) results in an overall, at times significant, increase in calculated mean hazard with respect to NZ NSHM
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Time‐Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Seismic Sequences Based on Hybrid Renewal Process Models Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Ming‐Yang Xu, Da‐Gang Lu, Wei Zhou
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a methodology with a long history and has been widely implemented. However, in the conventional PSHA and sequence‐based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (SPSHA) approaches, the occurrence of mainshocks is modeled as the homogeneous Poisson process, which is unsuitable for large earthquakes. To account for the stationary occurrence of small‐to‐moderate
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A Comprehensive Fault‐System Inversion Approach: Methods and Application to NSHM23 Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Kevin R. Milner, Edward H. Field
We present updated inversion‐based fault‐system solutions for the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23), standardizing earthquake rate model calculations on crustal faults across the western United States. We build upon the inversion methodology used in the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) to solve for time‐independent rates of earthquakes in an interconnected
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Comment on “Effect of Style of Faulting on the Orientation of Maximum Horizontal Earthquake Response Spectra” by Alan Poulos and Eduardo Miranda Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Paul Somerville
Poulos and Miranda (2023) have recently examined the effect of the style of faulting on the orientation of recorded maximum horizontal response spectra spanning an extensive distance range. Using a point source model of the earthquake source, they find that the tangential (transverse) component of horizontal ground motion with reference to the epicenter, rather than the strike‐normal component, is
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Erratum to Complex Crustal Deformation Controlled by the 3D Geometry of the Chile Subduction Zone Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2024-02-01 Marco T. Herrera, Jorge G. F. Crempien, José Cembrano
The authors of Herrera et al. (2023) note the following errors in their original article: Location of Error . Original Text . Revised Text . Third key point The upper plate deformation is consistent with radially from fault‐oriented normal and strike‐slip faults Crustal faults representing upper plate deformation form an arcuate pattern around persistent rupture zones Abstract N20°W–50° W/N60°SW N20°W–50°
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A Site‐Response Model for the Vertical Component of Ground‐Motion Prediction Equation Using a New Site‐Response Parameter TVH Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Shihong Bai, John X. Zhao
This study presents an alternate site‐response model to the existing ground‐motion prediction equation (GMPE) from our previous study with some calibration to the magnitude term. We used a new site‐response proxy TVH=4×max(30,HB)/VS30 that combines VS30 (the travel‐time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity to 30 m depth) with the engineering bedrock depth HB. VS30 is available for many strong‐motion recording
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A Detailed View of the 2020–2023 Southwestern Puerto Rico Seismic Sequence with Deep Learning Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. (IF 3.0) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Clara E. Yoon, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Elizabeth A. Vanacore, Victor Huerfano, Gisela Báez‐Sánchez, John D. Wilding, Jonathan Smith
The 2020–2023 southwestern Puerto Rico seismic sequence, still ongoing in 2023, is remarkable for its multiple‐fault rupture complexity and elevated aftershock productivity. We applied an automatic workflow to continuous data from 43 seismic stations in Puerto Rico to build an enhanced earthquake catalog with ∼180,000 events for the 3+ yr sequence from 28 December 2019 to 1 January 2023. This workflow