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Lesser Antilles Seismotectonic Zoning Model for Seismic Hazard Assessment Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-18 Oceane Foix, Stéphane Mazzotti, Hervé Jomard, Didier Bertil, the Lesser Antilles Working Group
Abstract. Subduction zones pose a considerable challenge within the realm of seismotectonics, owing to their faults and structures interactions. The Lesser Antilles arc is a good example of how these complexities impact seismic hazard studies with a strong along-strike variations in tectonic, seismic, and volcanic activities. While they have generated significant damages, the 1839 and 1843 event characteristics
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Improving Risk Assessment of Subaqueous Landslides and Tsunami Generation by Understanding the Roles of Pore Pressure and Sediment Cohesion Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-18 Maxwell M. W. Silver, Elizabeth Reddy, Brandon Dugan
Abstract. Subaqueous landslides present a hazard to communities through their ability to damage infrastructure and generate tsunamis. Efforts to assess tsunami risk often depend on observations from prior events, such as volume of sediment remobilized, velocity of remobilized sediments, slope angle, and/or recurrence intervals. However, geology and hydrology are important factors in slope failure likelihood
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Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-17 Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, Jeffrey Czajkowski
Abstract. Flood damage caused by hurricanes is expected to rise globally due to climate and socio-economic change. Enhanced flood preparedness among the coastal population is required to reverse this trend. The decisions and actions taken by individuals are thought to be influenced by risk perceptions. This study investigates the determinants that shape flood risk perceptions and the factors that drive
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Blade Hardness Gauge: Snow Hardness Measuring and Analysis Techniques Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Peter Karl Aird Barsevskis, Mark J. Paetkau
Abstract. The blade hardness gauge (BHG) is a promising technology for avalanche forecasters, technicians, and researchers. Designed and produced by Fraser Instruments Ltd., the BHG resembles and is based on the thin-blade tool introduced by Borstad and McClung in 2011. The BHG was designed to quantitatively measure snow hardness without the known biases of the hand hardness test. Research was carried
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Compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-16 François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, Bénédicte Jourdier
Abstract. To reach climate mitigation goals, the share of wind power in the electricity production is going to increase substantially in France. In winter, low wind days are challenging for the electricity system if compounded with cold days that are associated with peak electricity demand. The scope of this study is to characterize the evolution of compound low wind and cold events in winter over
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How to communicate and educate more effectively on natural risk issues to improve disaster risk management through serious games Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Mercedes Vázquez-Vílchez, Rocío Carmona-Molero, Tania Ouariachi-Peralta
Abstract. This study focuses on exploring the potential of serious games for improving disaster risk management. The research involves methodological triangulation, analysing and comparing data from content analysis of serious games (6 digital games: 3 mobile apps and 3 online games), focus groups with experts and literature review. The results show that only online games fulfil the fundamental narrative
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The effect of propagation saw test geometries on critical cut length Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Bastian Bergfeld, Karl W. Birkeland, Valentin Adam, Philipp L. Rosendahl, Alec van Herwijnen
Abstract. For a slab avalanche to release, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive snow slab has to initiate and propagate. Information on crack propagation is essential for assessing avalanche triggering potential. In the field, this information can be gathered with the Propagation Saw Test (PST), a field test that provides valuable data on crack propagation propensity. The first PSTs were
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Morphological characteristics and conditions of drainage basins contributing to the formation of debris flow fans: an examination of regions with different rock strength using decision tree analysis Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Ken'ichi Koshimizu, Satoshi Ishimaru, Fumitoshi Imaizumi, Gentaro Kawakami
Abstract. Debris flows cause severe disasters that can result in human casualties and the collapse of houses. The establishment of early warning systems in basins with high debris flow risks is needed to reduce the negative impacts of debris flow disasters. Because debris flows often form debris flow fans near the mouths of valleys, debris flow fans are regarded as important topographical elements
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Evaluating the disaster risk levels associated with “Dragon Boat Water” in Guangdong China Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Yamin Hu, Xiaocen Jiang, Juanhuai Wang, Liang Zhao, Guanrong Huang
Abstract. Dragon Boat Water (DBW) is a period characterized by abundant precipitation and concentrated precipitation process in Guangdong province, China. The period often leads to severe flood disasters, resulting in substantial losses to both livelihoods and production. However, a comprehensive assessment of disaster risk during DBW has been lacking. In this study, we utilized daily precipitation
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The role of antecedent conditions in translating precipitation events into extreme floods at catchment scale and in a large basin context Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-11 Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, Daniel Viviroli
Abstract. In this study, we analyze how precipitation, antecedent conditions, and their spatial patterns and interactions lead to extreme floods in a large catchment. The analysis is based on 10,000 years of continuous simulations from a hydro-meteorological model chain for a large catchment, the Aare river basin, Switzerland. To account for different flood-generating processes, we based our work on
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Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-11 Alison Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria Bell, Jamie Hannaford
Abstract. Meteorological and hydrological hazards present challenges to people and ecosystems worldwide, but the limited length of observational data means that the possible extreme range is not fully understood. Here, a large ensemble of climate model data is combined with a simple grid-based hydrological model, to assess unprecedented but plausible hydrological extremes in the current climate across
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Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-10 Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, Uwe Ulbrich
Abstract. Annual maxima of daily precipitation sums can be typically described well with a stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In many regions of the world, such a description does also work well for monthly maxima for a given month of the year. However, the description of seasonal and interannual variations requires the use of non-stationary models. Therefore, in this paper we
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Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-10 Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, Giorgio Vacchiano
Abstract. Natural disturbances like windthrows or forest fires alter the provision of forest ecosystem services like timber production, protection from natural hazards or carbon sequestration. After a disturbance, forests release large amounts of carbon and therefore change their status from carbon sinks to carbon source for some time. Climate-smart forest management may decrease forest vulnerability
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Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-09 Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, Yuchen Liu
Abstract. The atmospheric-hydrological coupling systems are essential in flood forecasting because they allow for more improved and comprehensive prediction of flood events with an extended forecast lead time. Achieving this goal relies on a reliable hydrological model system that enhances both rainfall predictions and hydrological forecasts. This study evaluated the potential of coupling the mesoscale
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A dense micro-electromechanical system (MEMS)-based seismic network in populated areas: rapid estimation of exposure maps in Trentino (NE Italy) Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-08 Davide Scafidi, Alfio Viganò, Jacopo Boaga, Valeria Cascone, Simone Barani, Daniele Spallarossa, Gabriele Ferretti, Mauro Carli, Giancarlo De Marchi
Abstract. The micro-electromechanical system (MEMS)-based seismic network of Trentino (NE Italy) consists of 73 low-cost accelerometers installed close to inhabited areas. These sensors have a suitable sensitivity to detect moderate-to-strong earthquakes but are able to record even weaker seismicity. The densely distributed peak ground acceleration values recorded by MEMS and other types of stations
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Using a convection-permitting climate model to predict wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-08 Laura Teresa Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, Cécile Caillaud
Abstract. Viticulture is tied to climate, it influences the suitability of an area, yield and quality of wine grapes. Therefore, traditional wine-growing regions could be threatened by a changing climate. Italy is at-risk being part of the Mediterranean climatic hotspot and judged in 2022 the second-largest exporter of wine worldwide. The article explores the potential of climate models to predict
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Regional-scale analysis of weather-related rockfall triggering mechanisms in Norway, and its sensitivity to climate change Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-08 Rosa M. Palau, Kjersti Gleditsch Gisnås, Anders Solheim, Graham Lewis Gilbert
Abstract. This paper evaluates the relation between rockfall events and weather conditions for two regions in Norway – Romsdalen and Gudbrandsdalen and explores how rockfall frequency might change with future climate conditions. Our analysis focuses on understanding the relationship between rockfall occurrence and effective water inputs, including rainfall and snow melt, and temperature oscillations
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Exploring inferred geomorphological sediment thickness as a new site proxy to predict ground-shaking amplification at regional scale: application to Europe and eastern Türkiye Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-05 Karina Loviknes, Fabrice Cotton, Graeme Weatherill
Abstract. To test whether a globally inferred sediment thickness value from geomorphological studies can be used as a proxy to predict earthquake site amplification, we derive site-amplification models from the relation between empirical amplification for sites in Europe and Türkiye and the geomorphological sediment thickness. The new site-amplification predictions are then compared to predictions
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SEATANI: hazards from seamounts in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands (eastern India) Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-05 Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna F. Jenkins, Fidel Costa, Adam D. Switzer
Abstract. Submarine volcanism makes up approximately 85 % of volcanism that occurs on Earth, and its eruptions have the potential to cause several hazards including ash dispersal, pumice rafts, pyroclastic density currents, sector collapses, and tsunamis. Recent examples include the eruptions in Japan and in the Kingdom of Tonga in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but there has been little to no study of
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An updated EAWS matrix to determine the avalanche danger level: derivation, usage, and consistency Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-05 Karsten Müller, Frank Techel, Christoph Mitterer
Abstract. Avalanche forecasting plays a crucial role in mitigating risks associated with snow avalanches in mountainous regions. Standards for regional avalanche forecasting were initially developed at national levels. Therefore, the introduction of the European Avalanche Danger Scale (EADS) in 1993, still in use today, represented a milestone in harmonizing the assessment and communication of avalanche
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From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-04 Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, Pieter van Oel
Abstract. A cascade of drought impacts refers to a series of interconnected events that trigger a chain reaction of impacts, extending beyond water scarcity, to affect agricultural production, socio-economic factors, and the environment. This paper aims to understand the role of society in mitigating drought impacts, particularly through policy responses. Conducting a case study in Ceará state, northeast
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Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree River basin, Germany Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-04 Saskia Arndt, Stefan Heiland
Abstract. Fuelled by climate change, low flows, heavy rain and flooding likely intensify in the future, adding to the pressures experienced by rivers in Western and Central Europe in recent decades. To meet these challenges, comprehensive water-related adaptation to climate change is indispensable. Based on the case study of the Spree River basin in Germany, this study analysed legally defined plans
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Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-04 Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, Todd P. Lane
Abstract. Previous research has suggested that the frequency and intensity of surface hazards associated with thunderstorms and convection, such as severe convective winds (SCWs), could potentially change in a future climate due to global warming. However, because of the small spatial scales associated with SCWs, they are unresolved in global climate models, and future climate projections are uncertain
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Risk Assessment and Mechanism of Water Inrush in Water-rich Deep-buried Karst Tunnel Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-04 Xin Zhang, Mingtang Lei, Shaoqing Wang, Xiaotian Zhang, Hai Chen, Xiaozhen Jiang
Abstract. Water inrush disaster is the main geological disaster of water-rich and deep-buried karst tunnel, which is extremely harmful and threatens tunnel construction and construction safety. When building tunnels in water-rich and deep-buried karst areas, it has become a major challenge to evaluate the risk and study the mechanism of water inrush from tunnels. In order to solve this problem, this
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Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Jonathan P. Perkins, Nina S. Oakley, Brian D. Collins, Skye C. Corbett, W. Paul Burgess
Abstract. Rainfall strongly affects landslide triggering; however, understanding how storm characteristics relate to the severity of landslides at the regional scale has thus far remained unclear, despite the societal benefits that would result from defining this relationship. As mapped landslide inventories typically cover a small region relative to a storm system, here we develop a proxy for landslide-inducing
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Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Faye Hulton, David M. Schultz
Abstract. Large hail (greater than 2 cm in diameter) can cause devastating damage to crops and property and can even cause loss of life. Because hail reports are often collected by individual countries, constructing a Europe-wide large-hail climatology has been challenging to date. However, the European Severe Storm Laboratory's European Severe Weather Database provides the only pan-European dataset
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Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods? Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, Antoinette Alias
Abstract. Floods are the primary natural hazard in the French Mediterranean area, causing damages and fatalities every year. These floods are triggered by heavy precipitation events (HPEs) characterized by limited temporal and spatial extents. A new generation of regional climate models at the kilometer scale have been developed, allowing an explicit representation of deep convection and improved simulations
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Surface rupture kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate (Philippines) earthquake determined from optical and radar data Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Khelly Shan Sta. Rita, Sotiris Valkaniotis, Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay
Abstract. Optical correlation, interferometry, and field investigation of laterally offset features were undertaken to analyze the kinematics of the 2020 Mw 6.6 Masbate earthquake. Ground displacement fields show a peak left-lateral offset of 0.6 m corresponding to Mw 6.6 geodetic moment magnitude, with an average 0.4 m left-lateral slip. The slip distributions also indicate a single asperity located
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A regional early warning for slushflow hazard Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Monica Sund, Heidi A. Grønsten, Siv Å. Seljesæter
Abstract. Slushflows are rapid mass movements of water-saturated snow. They release in gently sloping locations (<30°) and are hence not restricted to steep slopes. Slushflows are observed worldwide in areas with seasonal snow cover and pose a significant natural hazard in Norway. Hazard prediction and early warning are therefore crucial to prevent casualties and damage to infrastructure. A regional
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Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, Patrick Laux
Abstract. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions most affected by climate change, which poses significant challenges to agricultural efficiency and food security. While rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation levels already impose great risks, the effects of compound extreme events (CEEs) can be significantly more severe and amplify the risk. It is therefore of high importance to assess
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Monitoring snow depth variations in an avalanche release area using low cost LiDAR and optical sensors Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Pia Ruttner-Jansen, Annelies Voordendag, Thierry Hartmann, Julia Glaus, Andreas Wieser, Yves Bühler
Abstract. Snow avalanches threaten people and infrastructure in mountainous areas. For the assessment of temporal protection measures of infrastructure in dangerous situations, local and up to date information is crucial. One factor influencing the avalanche situation is wind drifted snow, which causes variations in snow depth across a slope, but this data is rarely available. We present a monitoring
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Study on Multi-water Sources Allocation Based on Multi-scenario potential tapping under Extreme Drought: An Example from the Yellow River Water Supply Area in Henan Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-02 Fang Wan, Shaoming Peng, Yu Wang, Xiaokang Zheng, Fei Zhang, Weihao Wang, Xiaohui Shen
Abstract. The water supply of water resources allocation under extreme drought is insufficient, and the limited available water resources make it urgent to tap the potential of water supply. In this paper, the Yellow River water supply area in Henan Province is taken as an example to study the multi-water source allocation under extreme drought. According to the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
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Modeling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-04-02 Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, Stefano Lorito
Abstract. The initial condition for the simulation of a seismically-induced tsunami for a rapid, assumed instantaneous, vertical seafloor displacement is given by the Kajiura low-pass filter integral. This work proposes a new efficient and accurate approach for its numerical evaluation, valid when the sea floor displacement is discretized as a set of rectangular contributions. We compare several truncated
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Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-28 Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Yue Zhu
Abstract. In this paper, we anticipate geospatial population distributions to quantify the future number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru. We capitalize upon existing gridded population time series data sets, which are provided on an open-source basis globally, and implement machine learning models tailored for time series analysis, i.e., based on
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Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-28 Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, Maliko Tanguy
Abstract. The UK has experienced recurring periods of hydrological droughts in the past, including the drought declared in summer 2022. Seasonal hindcasts, consisting of a large sample of plausible weather sequences, can be used to create drought storylines and add value to existing approaches to water resources planning. In this study, the drivers of winter rainfall in the Anglian region in England
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The influence of aftershocks on seismic hazard analysis: a case study from Xichang and the surrounding areas Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-28 Qing Wu, Guijuan Lai, Jian Wu, Jinmeng Bi
Abstract. In some instances, a strong aftershock can cause more damage than the mainshock. Ignoring the influence of aftershocks may lead to the underestimation of the seismic hazard of some areas. Taking Xichang and its surrounding areas as an example and based on the Seismic ground motion parameters zonation map of China (GB 18306-2015), this study used the Monte Carlo method to simulate synthetic
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Comparison of debris flow observations, including fine-sediment grain size and composition and runout model results, at Illgraben, Swiss Alps Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-28 Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, Brian W. McArdell
Abstract. Debris flows are important processes for the assessment of natural hazards due to their damage potential. To assess the impact of a potential debris flow, parameters such as the flow velocity, flow depth, maximum discharge, and volume are of great importance. This study uses data from the Illgraben observation station in the central Alps of Switzerland to explore the relationships between
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Effective Storm Surge Evacuation Planning Coupling Risk Assessment and DRL: A Case Study of Daya Bay Petrochemical Industrial Zone Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 Chuanfeng Liu, Yan Li, Wenjuan Li, Hao Qin, Lin Mu, Si Wang, Darong Liu, Kai Zhou
Abstract. Storm surge is one of the most destructive marine disasters, characterized by abnormal and temporary rises in water levels during intense storms, leading to extreme inland flooding in the coastal area. Emergency evacuation planning, based on storm surge risk assessments, plays a crucial role in saving lives and mitigating disasters. Conventional emergency evacuation plans primarily adopt
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GTDI: a gaming integrated drought index implying hazard causing and bearing impacts changing Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-25 Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, Yurou Zhang
Abstract. Developing an effective and reliable integrated drought index is crucial for tracking and identifying droughts. The study employs game theory to create a spatially variable weight drought index (GTDI) by combining two single-type indices: the agricultural drought index (SSMI), which implies drought hazard-bearing conditions, and the meteorological drought index (SPEI), which implies drought
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Invited perspectives: Safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-26 Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Sergiy Vorogushyn
Abstract. Flood hazard and risk assessments (FHRAs), and the underlying models, form the basis of decisions regarding flood mitigation and climate adaptation measures and are thus imperative for safeguarding communities from the devastating consequences of flood events. In this perspective paper, we discuss how FHRAs should be validated to be fit-for-purpose in order to optimally support decision-making
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A new approach for drought index adjustment to clay-shrinkage-induced subsidence over France: advantages of the interactive leaf area index Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-21 Sophie Barthelemy, Bertrand Bonan, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Gilles Grandjean, David Moncoulon, Dorothée Kapsambelis, Séverine Bernardie
Abstract. Clay shrinkage, which consists of a reduction in the volume of clay soils during dry periods, can affect buildings and cause subsidence damage. In France, losses due to subsidence are estimated at more than EUR 16 billion for the period 1989–2021 (CCR, 2021) and are expected to increase under the effect of climate warming. This work aims to improve the current understanding of the conditions
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Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-21 Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, Peter Robins
Abstract. Estuarine compound flooding can happen when extreme sea level and river discharges occur concurrently, or in close succession, inundating low-lying coastal regions. Such events are hard to predict and amplify the hazard. Recent UK storms, including Storm Desmond (2015) and Ciara (2020), have highlighted the vulnerability of mountainous Atlantic-facing catchments to the impacts of compound
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A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-20 Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, Ettore Faga
Abstract. Central Asia is highly exposed to a broad range of hazardous phenomena including earthquakes, floods and landslides, which have cause substantial damage in the past. However, disaster risk reduction strategies are still under development in the area. We provide a regional-scale exposure database for population and residential buildings based on existing information from previous exposure
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Automated Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) mapping – local validation and optimization in western Canada Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-20 John Sykes, Håvard Toft, Pascal Haegeli, Grant Statham
Abstract. The Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES) is a system for classifying mountainous terrain based on the degree of exposure to avalanche hazard. The intent of ATES is to improve backcountry recreationist's ability to make informed risk management decisions by simplifying their terrain analysis. Access to ATES has been largely limited to manually generated maps in high-use areas due to the
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Always on My Mind: Indications of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Among Those Affected by the 2021 Flood Event in the Ahr Valley, Germany Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-19 Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, Annegret H. Thieken
Abstract. The devastating floods that swept through the Ahr Valley in July 2021 left indelible marks on the region's landscape and communities. Beyond the visible damage, experience from other events suggests an increase in mental health issues among those affected. However, there is a lack of data and understanding regarding the impact of flooding on mental health in Germany. Therefore, this study
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Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-19 Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, Olivier Caumont
Abstract. Spatially dense surface pressure observations from personal weather stations (PWSs) are able to describe pressure patterns at the surface, such as those associated with convective events, in more detail than with standard weather stations (SWSs) only. In this study, the benefit of assimilating PWS observations with the 3DVar and the 3DEnVar data assimilation schemes of the AROME-France model
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Ready, set, go! An anticipatory action system against droughts Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-15 Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, Rogério Bonifácio
Abstract. The World Food Programme, in collaboration with the Mozambique National Meteorology Institute, is partnering with several governmental and non-governmental organizations to establish an advanced early warning system for droughts in pilot districts across Mozambique. This warning system, named "Ready, Set & Go!", aims to proactively address impending droughts by setting predefined thresholds
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Simulation analysis of 3D stability of a landslide with a locking segment: a case study of the Tizicao landslide in Maoxian County, southwest China Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-15 Yuntao Zhou, Xiaoyan Zhao, Guangze Zhang, Bernd Wünnemann, Jiajia Zhang, Minghui Meng
Abstract. Rock bridges, also known as locking masses in landslides, affect the three-dimensional (3D) stability and deformation patterns of landslides. However, it is always difficult to simulate rock bridges with continuous grid models in 3D landslides due to their discontinuous deformations. Tizicao landslide, located in Maoxian County, southwest China, is a typical landslide with a super-large rock
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New insights into combined surfzone and estuarine bathing hazards Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-15 Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, Steve Instance
Abstract. Rip currents are the single largest cause of beach safety incidents globally, but where an estuary mouth intersects a beach, additional flows are created that can exceed the speed of a typical rip current, significantly increasing the hazard level for bathers. However, there is a paucity of observations of surfzone currents at estuary mouth beaches, and our understanding and ability to predict
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Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-14 Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, Eric Strobl
Abstract. Extreme rainfall events frequently cause hazardous floods in many parts of the world. With growing human exposure to floods, studying conditions that trigger floods is imperative. Flash floods, in particular, require well-defined models for the timely warning of the population at risk. Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a common way to characterize rainfall and flood events. Here
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Algorithmically Detected Rain-on-Snow Flood Events in Different Climate Datasets: A Case Study of the Susquehanna River Basin Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-14 Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, Rachel R. McCrary
Abstract. Rain-on-snow (RoS) events in regions of ephemeral snowpack – such as the northeastern United States – can be key drivers of cool-season flooding. We describe an automated algorithm for detecting basin-scale RoS events in gridded climate data by generating an area-averaged time-series and then searching for periods of concurrent precipitation, surface runoff, and snowmelt exceeding pre-defined
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Brief Communication: Weak correlation between building damage and loss of life from landslides Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-11 Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Alexandre Dunant, Amy L. Johnson, Erin L. Harvey, Sihan Li, Katherine Arrell, Jeevan Baniya, Dipak Basnet, Gopi K. Basyal, Nyima Dorjee Bhotia, Simon J. Dadson, Alexander L. Densmore, Tek Bahadur Dong, Mark E. Kincey, Katie Oven, Anuradha Puri, Nick J. Rosser
Abstract. Mapping exposure to landslides is necessary to mitigate risk and reduce vulnerability. Exposure maps can be constructed from building databases, akin to seismic risk assessments, but there has been little investigation of the predictive relationship between building damage and risk to human life from landslides. Our study investigates this relationship globally and in Nepal (47,213 and 5
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An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-11 Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, David N. Bresch
Abstract. Severe hailstorms result in substantial damage to buildings and vehicles, necessitating the quantification of associated risks. Here, we present a novel open-source hail damage model for buildings and cars based on single-polarization radar data and 250 000 geolocated hail damage reports in Switzerland from 2002 to 2021. To this end, we conduct a detailed evaluation of different radar-based
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Space–time landslide hazard modeling via Ensemble Neural Networks Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-08 Ashok Dahal, Hakan Tanyas, Cees van Westen, Mark van der Meijde, Paul Martin Mai, Raphaël Huser, Luigi Lombardo
Abstract. Until now, a full numerical description of the spatio-temporal dynamics of a landslide could be achieved only via physically based models. The part of the geoscientific community in developing data-driven models has instead focused on predicting where landslides may occur via susceptibility models. Moreover, they have estimate when landslides may occur via models that belong to the early-warning
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Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, Zhi Liu
Abstract. Using the peak ground acceleration (PGA) under four exceedance probabilities calculated via a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method for China, the probability density function of PGA was obtained by fitting with the Cornell seismic hazard exceedance probability PGA function model. Combined with the seismic fragility function of the water supply system calculated on the basis of the
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Volcano Tsunamis and their effects on moored vessels safety: The 2022 Tonga event Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, Maria A. Baptista
Abstract. The violent explosion of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano on January 15, 2022, was the origin of an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT), both of which were recorded worldwide. The Tonga tsunami event caused resonance effects, leading to wave amplification in some far-field coastal areas like La Pampilla port in Callao, Peru, 10,000 km away from the volcano, where
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Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, Duane Waliser
Abstract. The global increase in atmospheric water vapor due to climate change tends to heighten the dangers associated with both humid heat and heavy precipitation. Process-linked connections between these two extremes, particularly those which cause them to occur close together in space or time, are of special concern for impacts. Here we investigate how atmospheric rivers relate to the risk of summertime
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Characteristics and mechanisms of near-surface negative atmospheric electric field anomalies preceding the 5 September 2022, Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake in China Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Lixin Wu, Xiao Wang, Yuan Qi, Jingchen Lu, Wenfei Mao
Abstract. A magnitude 6.8 strike-slip earthquake (EQ) struck Luding, Sichuan Province, China, on 5 September 2022, resulting in significant damage to nearby Ganzi Prefecture and the city of Ya'an. In this research, the near-surface atmospheric electric field (AEF) recorded at four sites 15 d before the Luding EQ was analyzed and differentiated, and multisource auxiliary data including precipitation
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Glide-snow avalanches: A mechanical, threshold-based release area model Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Amelie Fees, Alec van Herwijnen, Michael Lombardo, Jürg Schweizer, Peter Lehmann
Abstract. Glide-snow avalanches release at the ground-snow interface due to a loss in basal friction. They pose a threat to infrastructure because of the combination of unreliable mitigation measures, limited forecasting capabilities, and a lack of understanding of the release process. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of spatial variability in basal friction and snowpack properties
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Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. (IF 4.6) Pub Date : 2024-03-05 Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, Matthew D. Piggott
Abstract. The Maldives face the threat of tsunamis from a multitude of sources. However, the limited availability of critical data, such as bathymetry (a recurrent problem for many island nations), has meant that the impact of these threats has not been studied at an island scale. Conducting studies of tsunami propagation at the island scale but across multiple atolls is also a challenging task due