Abstract
This study uses time series analysis in an effort to inform disaster response efforts by identifying changes to Houston crime during Hurricane Ike. The results indicate that Burglaries increased significantly by 305% during Ike. Aggravated Assaults also increased significantly, but Theft and Auto Theft decreased by 37% and 16% respectively. Several other crimes revealed no significant differences during Ike. These findings, when combined with other research, show that Burglaries consistently increase during natural disasters, and Emergency Support Function 13 (ESF-13) responders should plan for that reality. This study also provides some other considerations for ESF-13 management related to disaster preparedness training and exercises. Additionally, the study provides evidence of the need for ESF-13 responders and reinforces their importance as a key form of capable guardianship under Routine Activities Theory.
-
Research funding: The research was not funded.
-
Competing interests: The author has no relevant financial or non-financial competing interests.
References
About, Houston. 2019. Business Overview – Economy and Trade. http://www.houstontx.gov/abouthouston/economytrade.html (accessed August 28, 2020).Search in Google Scholar
Augusto, D. 2021. “Change-Point Analysis of Houston Crime During Hurricane Harvey.” Journal of Applied Security Research 16 (1): 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1080/19361610.2020.1857170.Search in Google Scholar
Augusto, D., E. Pollock, and S. Flick. 2020. “The Push of Disasters and Pull of Pandemics: Law Enforcement Officers’ Perspectives on Crime and Policing During Disasters and the COVID-19 Pandemic.” International Public Safety Association Journal 5 (1): 1–37.Search in Google Scholar
Baker, K. 2018. “Reflection on Lessons Learned: An Analysis of the Adverse Outcomes Observed During the Hurricane Rita Evacuation.” Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 12 (1): 115–20, https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2017.27.Search in Google Scholar
Berg, R. 2009. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Ike. Also available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092008_Ike.pdf.Search in Google Scholar
Brown, B. 2012. “Disaster Myth or Reality: Developing a Criminology of Disaster.” In Disasters, Hazards and Law. Bingley: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.10.1108/S1521-6136(2012)0000017004Search in Google Scholar
CDC. 2009. Hurricane Ike Rapid Needs Assessment --- Houston, Texas, September 2008. MMWR Weekly. Also available at https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5838a3.htm.Search in Google Scholar
City of Houston. 2021. Fiscal Year 2007 Adopted Budget. Also available at https://www.houstontx.gov/budget/07budadopt/III_POL.pdf.Search in Google Scholar
Cohen, L., and M. Felson. 1979. “Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activities Approach.” American Journal of Sociology 94 (1): 465–501.10.2307/2094589Search in Google Scholar
Conover, W. J., and R. L. Iman. 1981. “Rank Transformations as a Bridge between Parametric and Nonparametric Statistics.” The American Statistician 35 (3): 124–9, https://doi.org/10.2307/2683975.Search in Google Scholar
Department of Justice Office of Inspector General. 2020. Review of the U.S. Department of Justice’s Preparedness to Respond to Critical Incidents under Emergency Support Function 13. Washington. Also available at https://oig.justice.gov/sites/default/files/reports/e20025_1.pdf.Search in Google Scholar
Federal Emergency Management Agency. 2013. Emergency Support Function 13 Region III Fact Sheet. Washington. Also available at https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1903-25045-1174/esf___13_fact_sheet.pdf.Search in Google Scholar
FEMA. 2020. National Response Framework. Also available at https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/national-preparedness/frameworks/response.Search in Google Scholar
Field, A. 2018. Discovering Statistics Using SPSS, 5th ed. London: Sage.Search in Google Scholar
Frailing, K., and D. W. Harper. 2017. Toward a Criminology of Disaster: What we Know and What we Need to Find Out. New York: Springer.10.1057/978-1-137-46914-4Search in Google Scholar
Gavit, P., Y. Baddour, and R. Tholmer. 2009. “Use of Change-Point Analysis for Process Monitoring and Control.” Biopharm International 22 (8): 46.Search in Google Scholar
Government Accountability, Office. 2015. Emergency Management: FEMA Has Made Progress since Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, but Challenges Remain. GAO-16-90T. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-16-90t (accessed August 14, 2021).Search in Google Scholar
Hernandez, P. 2008. Houston’s Top Cop: We Were Ready for Ike. Houston Public Media. https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2008/10/01/12179/houstons-top-cop-we-were-ready-for-ike/ (accessed August 14, 2021).Search in Google Scholar
Houston Planning and Development. 2019. Demographics. http://www.houstontx.gov/planning/Demographics/ (accessed May 12, 2019).Search in Google Scholar
Houston Public, Media. 2008. Evacuations for Hurricane Ike. https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2008/09/11/11953/evacuations-for-hurricane-ike/ (accessed August 14, 2021).Search in Google Scholar
HPD. 2019. HPD’s Transition from UCR to NIBRS. http://www.houstontx.gov/police/cs/HPDs_Transition_from_UCR_to_NIBRS.htm (accessed February 9, 2019).Search in Google Scholar
HPD Office of Planning. 2019. Data Dictionary: A Guide for Interpreting Houston Police Department Data. Also available at https://www.houstontx.gov/police/cs/NIBRS_Public_Data_Dictionary_050919.pdf.Search in Google Scholar
Hussey, A., A. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, and I. S. Pacurar. 2010. Crime Spillovers and Hurricane Katrina. Also available at https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/5a78/d3ddc33a477eb9b98d263ffb02600ee2ff1f.pdf.Search in Google Scholar
Intellectus, Statistics. 2020. Intellectus Online Computer Software. https://analyze.intellectusstatistics.com/ (accessed December 19, 2020).Search in Google Scholar
LeBeau, J. 2002. “The Impact of a Hurricane on Routine Activities and on Calls for Police Service: Charlotte, North Carolina, and Hurricane Hugo.” Crime Prevention and Community Safety 4 (1): 53–64, https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.cpcs.8140114.Search in Google Scholar
Last, M., and R. Shumway. 2008. “Detecting Abrupt Changes in a Piecewise Locally Stationary Time Series.” Journal of Multivariate Analysis 99 (2): 191–214, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2007.06.010.Search in Google Scholar
Leitner, M., and M. Helbich. 2011. “The Impact of Hurricanes on Crime: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis in the City of Houston, Texas.” Cartography and Geographic Information Science 38 (2): 214, https://doi.org/10.1559/15230406382213.Search in Google Scholar
Mavromatis, T., and D. Stathis. 2011. “Response of the Water Balance in Greece to Temperature and Precipitation Trends.” Theoretical and Applied Climatology 104 (1–2): 13–24, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0320-9.Search in Google Scholar
Munasinghe, M. 2007. “The Importance of Social Capital: Comparing the Impacts of the 2004 Asian Tsunami on Sri Lanka, and Hurricane Katrina 2005 on New Orleans.” Ecological Economics 64 (1): 9–11, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.05.003.Search in Google Scholar
Quarantelli, E. 2007. “The Myth and the Realities: Keeping the ‘Looting’ Myth in Perspective.” Natural Hazards Observer 23 (1): 2–3.Search in Google Scholar
Quarantelli, E. 2008. “Conventional Beliefs and Counterintuitive Realities.” Social Research 75 (3): 873–904.10.1353/sor.2008.0003Search in Google Scholar
Quarantelli, E., and R. R. Dynes. 1970. “Property Norms and Looting: Their Patterns in Community Crises.” Phylon 31 (2): 168–82, https://doi.org/10.2307/273722.Search in Google Scholar
Regier, P., B. Henry, and J. N. Boyer. 2019. “Analyzing and Comparing Complex Environmental Time Series Using a Cumulative Sums Approach.” Methods (Orlando) 6 (1): 779–87, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2019.03.014.Search in Google Scholar
Ruggiero, K. J., K. Gros, J. McCauley, H. Resnick, M. Morgan, D. Kilpatrick, W. Muzzy, and R. Acierno. 2012. “Mental Health Outcomes Among Adults in Galveston and Chambers Counties After Hurricane Ike.” Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 6 (1): 26–32, https://doi.org/10.1001/dmp.2012.7.Search in Google Scholar
Sánchez, J. M., and D. Peña. 2003. “The Identification of Multiple Outliers in ARIMA Models.” Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods 32 (6): 1265–87, https://doi.org/10.1081/sta-120021331.Search in Google Scholar
Taylor, W. 2009. Change-point Analysis: A Powerful New Tool for Detecting Changes. https://variation.com/wp-content/uploads/change-point-analyzer/change-point-analysis-a-powerful-new-tool-for-detecting-changes.pdf (accessed July 2, 2019).Search in Google Scholar
Taylor, W. 2019. Change-Point Analyzer 2.3 Shareware Program. Taylor Enterprises, Last Modified 2019. Also available at http://www.variation.com/.Search in Google Scholar
Texas Department of Public Safety. 2021. Crime in Texas Online. https://txucr.nibrs.com/SRSReport/CrimeTrends (accessed August 19, 2021).Search in Google Scholar
Texas Public, Law. 2021. Texas Statutes – Penal Code. https://texas.public.law/statutes/tex._penal_code (accessed August 15, 2021).Search in Google Scholar
Texas Task Force. Hurricane Ike. http://texastaskforce1.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/2008_Hurricane-Ike.pdf (accessed June 25, 2019).Search in Google Scholar
Thornton, W., and L. Voigt. 2007. “Disaster Rape: Vulnerability of Women to Sexual Assaults during Hurricane Katrina.” Journal of Public Management and Social Policy 13 (2): 23–49.Search in Google Scholar
True, J. 2013. “Gendered Violence in Natural Disasters: Learning from New Orleans, Haiti and Christchurch.” Aotearoa New Zealand Social Work 25 (2): 78–89.10.11157/anzswj-vol25iss2id83Search in Google Scholar
Wenger, D., and B. J. Friedman. 1986. “Local and National Media Coverage of Disaster: A Content Analysis of the Print Media’s Treatment of Disaster Myths.” International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 4 (3): 78–89.10.1177/028072708600400303Search in Google Scholar
© 2021 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
