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Spatio-temporal Analysis of Human Mortality in Canada

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Abstract

While studies of mortality have been gaining research attention worldwide, little attempt has been made to understand Canadian mortality rates from a spatial perspective. The objective of this research was to detect patterns in the spatial distribution of mortality rates for the sixty-five and older age group at the Canadian census division level. Specifically, the spatial patterns of mortality rates for Canadian males and females were examined using Moran’s I statistics, local indicators of spatial association, and cluster maps. The global Moran’s I tests of spatial autocorrelation suggest that Canadian mortality rates are spatially clustered, and further revealed the extent to which these spatial patterns remained consistent across the years in the study. These results were validated by local spatial modeling techniques, which were able to detect several areas in Canada where the mortality rates are clustered. This exploratory study revealed several regions of Canada which experience elevated mortality rates compared to the rest of the country, and provides a starting point for more nuanced investigations of mortality in Canada.

Résumé

Alors que les études de mortalité suscitent l’intérêt croissant des chercheurs partout dans le monde, rares sont les travaux permettant d’appréhender les taux de mortalité canadiens d’un point de vue géographique. Dans cette étude, nous avons cherché à dégager des profils dans la distribution spatiale des taux de mortalité des Canadiens et des Canadiennes de 65 ans et plus à l’échelle des divisions de recensement du pays. Pour analyser ces profils, nous nous sommes notamment appuyés sur l’indice de Moran, divers indicateurs locaux d’association spatiale ainsi que plusieurs cartes de groupement. Les tests globaux d’autocorrélation spatiale de l’indice de Moran montrent que les taux de mortalité sont géographiquement regroupés, et que cette distribution spatiale demeure constante au fil des ans. Les différentes techniques de modélisation spatiale locale nous ont non seulement permis de valider ces résultats, mais également d’identifier les territoires canadiens où les taux de mortalité sont regroupés. Cette étude exploratoire met en évidence plusieurs régions canadiennes où les taux de mortalité sont plus élevés qu’ailleurs dans le pays, et constitue un point de départ pour mener des recherches plus nuancées sur la mortalité au Canada.

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Availability of Data and Materials

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in the public domain, and were obtained from Statistics Canada’s Annual Demographic Estimates at www150.statcan.gc.ca.

Notes

  1. Mortality estimates were obtained on July 13, 2021, from www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014001

  2. Population estimates were obtained on July 13, 2021, from www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710013901

  3. Due to availability of data, mortality rates were only determined for these binary sexes.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the support of Saint Francis Xavier’s University Council for Research.

Funding

This research was supported by the Saint Francis Xavier University Council on Research grant.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics & Statistics, St. Francis Xavier University, 4130 University Ave, Antigonish, NS, B2G 2W5, Canada

    Kyran Cupido & Olivia McClure

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  1. Kyran Cupido
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  2. Olivia McClure
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Contributions

Dr. Cupido designed and directed the study. Ms. McClure contributed to the implementation of the research, to the collection of the data, and to the analysis of the results. Dr. Cupido prepared the manuscript in consultation with Ms. McClure.

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Correspondence to Kyran Cupido.

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Cupido, K., McClure, O. Spatio-temporal Analysis of Human Mortality in Canada. Can. Stud. Popul. 49, 183–198 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42650-022-00071-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42650-022-00071-5

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