Does Russia–Ukraine war generate herding behavior in Moscow Exchange?

This study examines whether the Russia–Ukraine war affects herding behavior in the Moscow Exchange.

The authors employ the daily stock closing prices of 40 firms, which constitute the MOEX Russia Index from June 16, 2021, to November 30, 2022. The period before the invasion ranges from June 16, 2021, to February 23, 2022, while the post-invasion period runs from February 24, 2022, to November 30, 2022.

The findings suggest that the Russia–Ukraine war led to the formation of herding behavior among investors in Moscow Exchange. However, this herding behavior seems to be prevalent only during market downturns.

The results are important for policymakers and fund managers since they help them understand behavior patterns of investors during periods of war. Given the devastating effect of herd behavior on market stability, policymakers should implement a strategy to avoid this behavior. The formation of herding behavior during the Russia–Ukraine war indicates that uncertainty and fear caused by Western sanctions lead investors to imitate others which, in turn, could lead to equity mispricing. Thus, firm managers should take into account this evidence in equity issuance decisions in order to time the market. The findings raise questions about the validity of the efficient market hypothesis during the periods of war.

This study represents the first attempt to explore whether the Russia–Ukraine conflict contributes to the appearance of herding behavior among investors on Moscow Exchange.