Grey forecast of electricity production from coal and renewable sources in the USA, Japan and China
Grey Systems: Theory and Application
ISSN: 2043-9377
Article publication date: 26 April 2023
Issue publication date: 6 July 2023
Abstract
Purpose
Electricity plays an essential role in nations' economic development. However, coal and renewables currently play an important part in electricity production in major world economies. The current study aims to forecast the electricity production from coal and renewables in the USA, China and Japan.
Design/methodology/approach
Two intelligent grey forecasting models – optimized discrete grey forecasting model DGM (1,1,α), and optimized even grey forecasting model EGM (1,1,α,θ) – are used to forecast electricity production. Also, the accuracy of the forecasts is measured through the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).
Findings
Coal-powered electricity production is decreasing, while renewable energy production is increasing in the major economies (MEs). China's coal-fired electricity production continues to grow. The forecasts generated by the two grey models are more accurate than that by the classical models EGM (1,1) and DGM (1,1) and the exponential triple smoothing (ETS).
Originality/value
The study confirms the reliability and validity of grey forecasting models to predict electricity production in the MEs.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
This work is supported by Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China (No. 21KJB480011). This work is a derivative of the thesis written by the author at Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology under the supervision of Wang Yue. Later, during his stay at Nanjing University, the author improved the work and prepared this manuscript in its current form. The manuscript received Excellent Paper Award at the 2022 International Congress on Grey Systems and Uncertainty Analysis. More information about grey forecasting models can be found at www.GreySystem.org.
Citation
Tulkinov, S. (2023), "Grey forecast of electricity production from coal and renewable sources in the USA, Japan and China", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 13 No. 3, pp. 517-543. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-10-2022-0107
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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