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The Contemporary Generations in American Politics

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Abstract

Generations can be useful for explaining cohort-level differences in partisan preferences. Yet a critical aspect of studying political generations is the selection of one period of dates instead of another. The common definitions of generations, popularized by the Pew Research Center, have been found to tell us a considerable amount about contemporary divides in American politics. Yet within the popular definitions of generations, age cohorts can diverge politically because their formative experiences are dissimilar. Subsets of generations can have their own political idiosyncrasies as their early experiences can differ in important ways. The traditional definition of the generations, therefore, may not be the best way to categorize generations in the USA from a political perspective. Reclassifying generational cohorts yields some important age-cohort political differences that get lost in the traditional definition of the generations, altering our perceptions of generational political attitudes. Such a categorization of the generations exhibits younger cohorts that are strongly Democratic and a middle-aged cohort that in recent presidential elections has moved strongly towards the Republicans. What stands out, however, is the politics of older Baby Boomers, who have emerged as Democratic leaning. Thus, unlike the traditional definitions of the generations, the alternative generational cohorts we present portray a generational divide that does not get consistently more Republican as one ages.

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Notes

  1. Patrick Fisher, The Generational Gap in American Politics (New York: Routledge, 2023).

  2. Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., The Cycles of American History (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1986).

  3. Michael Dimock, “Defining Generations: Where Millennials End and Post-Millennials Begin,” Pew Research Center March 1, 2018.

  4. Michael X. Delli Carpini, “Age and History: Generations and Sociopolitical Change,” in Political Learning in Adulthood, Richard S. Sigel ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1989), pp. 11-55.

  5. Neil Howe and William Strauss, Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation (New York: Vintage Books, 2000) p. 40.

  6. Dimock, “Defining Generations: Where Millennials End and Generation Z Begins.”

  7. Pew Research Center, “The Whys and Hows of Generations Research,” September 3, 2015.

  8. Cliff Zukin, Scott Keeter, Molly Andolina, Krista Jenkins, and Michael X. Delli Carpini, A New Engagement? Political Participation, Civic Life, and the Changing American Citizen (New York: Oxford, 2006), pp. 10-12.

  9. Alan B. Spitzer, “The Historical Problem of Generations,” The American Historical Review 78 (1973): 1353-1385.

  10. Paul R. Abramson, Generational Change in American Politics (Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1975), Kevin Munger, Generation Gap (New York: Columbia University Press, 2022); Fisher, The Generational Gap in American Politics.

  11. Karl Mannheim, “The Problem with Generations,” in Essays on the Sociology of Knowledge (London: Routledge, 1929), pp. 276-320.

  12. Ronald Inglehart, Cultural Shift in Advanced Industrial Societies (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989).

  13. Richard Braungart and Margaet Baraungart, “Life Course and Generational Politics,” Annual Review of Sociology 12 (1986): 205-231.

  14. Morris P. Fiorina, “An Outline for a Model of Party Choice,” American journal of Political Science 21 (1977): 601-625.

  15. Yair Ghitza, Andrew Gelman, and Jonathan Auerbach, “The Great Society, Reagan’s Revolution, and Generations of Presidential Voting,” American Journal of Political Science April 2022, pp. 1-18.

  16. Robert S. Erikson, Michael B. Macken, and James A. Stimson, The Macro Polity (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002), p. 155.

  17. Elias Dinas, “Does Choice Bring Loyalty? Electoral Participation and the Development of Party Identification,” American Journal of Political Science 58 (2014): 449-465.

  18. M. Kent Jennings and Richard G. Niemi, Generation and Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1981).

  19. Fisher, The Generational Gap in American Politics.

  20. Pew Research Center, “Most Millennials Resist the ‘Millennial’ Label.”

  21. Fisher, The Generational Gap in American Politics, chapter 3.

  22. Patrick Fisher, Demographic Gaps in American Political Behavior (Boulder, CO: Westview, 2014), chapter 6.

  23. Estimates based on exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool.

  24. Jean M. Twenge, Generation Me (New York: Atria Books, 2014).

  25. Stella M. Rouse and Ashley D. Ross, The Politics of Millennials (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2018).

  26. Amy Corning and Howard Schuman, Generations and Collective Memory (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2015).

  27. Howard Schuman and Amy Corning, “The Conversion of Generational Effects in Collective Memories,” International Journal of Public Opinion, 29 (2017): 520-532.

  28. Munger, Generation Gap, p. 22.

  29. Paul Taylor, The Next America (New York: Public Affairs, 2015), p. 71.

  30. Donald P Green, Bradley Palmquist, and Eric Schickler, Partisan Hearts and Minds (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002), p. 92.

  31. Zukin et al., A New Engagement? chapter 2.

  32. Erikson et al., The Macro Polity, p. 157.

  33. Taylor, The Next America, pp. 71-73.

  34. Fisher, The Generational Gap in American Politics, chapter 2.

  35. Paul Taylor, “Generation X: America’s Neglected ‘Middle Child,’” Pew Research Center June 5, 2014.

  36. Pew Research Center, “The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election,” November 3, 2011.

  37. Pew Research Center, “The Generation Gap in American Politics,” March 1, 2018.

  38. Rouse and Ross, The Politics of Millennials, p. 202.

  39. John Cluverius and Joshua J. Dyck, “Deconstructing Popular Mythologies about Milllennials and Party Identification,” The Forum 17 (2019): 271-294.

  40. Kim Parker and Ruth Igielnik, “On the Cusp of Adulthood and Facing an Uncertain Future: What We Know About Generation Z So Far,” Pew Research Center May 14, 2020.

  41. New York Times/Siena College poll of 792 likely voters nationwide from Oct. 9 to 12, 2022.

  42. Pew Research Center, “The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election.”

  43. Richard Braungart and Margaet Baraungart, “Life Course and Generational Politics,” Annual Review of Sociology 12 (1986): 205-231.

  44. Mannheim, “The Problem with Generations.”

  45. Munger, Generation Gap.

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Fisher, P. The Contemporary Generations in American Politics. Soc 60, 492–500 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12115-023-00849-6

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