Abstract
The Paris Agreement reflects an expectation that each party’s action on climate change mitigation should progress with the adoption of successive Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This article assesses the legal force and effectiveness of such requirements on progression in a state’s overall ambition on climate change mitigation. First, it identifies legal requirements through a legal analysis of the sources of international law and a review of national legislation. The article introduces a distinction between requirements on active progression in new NDCs and on non-regression in NDC updates. Second, the article reveals obstacles to assessing compliance with any of these requirements. A review of the Paris Agreement’s first ambition cycle sheds light on frequent issues relating to changes in the type of mitigation objective included in the NDC, in the normative nature of an NDC, and in the underlying data. Breaches of progression requirements appear extremely difficult to demonstrate, not only due to practical difficulties in gathering evidence, but also to the lack of a clear definition of these requirements. In particular, one can approach progression alternatively in light of the efforts implemented by a state or the results promised by that state, and one could assess these efforts or outcomes on the touchstone of either national or global emissions. This analysis thus shows that progression requirements are at present rather ineffective, although they could become more effective with the development of new mechanisms and methodologies.
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Notes
A new NDC may include an NDCU. See e.g., Marshall Islands’s second NDC (2018:1). The focus here is on formal updates, although updates could also occur materially, for instance when a state communicates new emission data that affect the baseline of its NDC’s mitigation target.
Corfu Channel (1949) ICJ Rep. 4, 22.
Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons in Armed Conflicts (1996) ICJ Rep. 226, §29.
Urgenda v Netherlands, Supreme Court (Netherlands), 20 December 2019, (2020) 59 ILM 811.
Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, 1969, 1155 UNTS 331, art. 32.
e.g., the NDCU1s of Australia, Brazil, and Japan, all communicated in 2020. All NDCs are available at https://unfccc.int/NDCREG.
Nuclear Tests (Australia v France), (1974) ICJ Rep. 253, §51.
e.g., Uganda’s National Climate Change Act 2021, s.4.2; Peru’s Ley marco sobre cambio climático, 2018, art. 14.1; Fiji’s Climate Change Act 2021, s.7.2.c.
e.g., Australia’s Climate Change Act 2022, s.10.4–6.
e.g., Norway’s Klimaloven, 2017, §5.
e.g., Chile’s Ley marco de cambio climático, 2022, art. 2.i.
e.g., France’s Code de l’environnement (2022), art. L110-1.
The change of the target’s value suggests an additional emission reduction of 770 MtCO2eq in 2030 within the EU27, almost twice the UK’s total emissions in 2020: EU’s National Inventory Report (2022), viii.
The main exception appears to be Tuvalu NDCU (2022:6), which reports the implementation of NDC1’s (2016:1) 2025 targets to 2030, and Chad’s NDCU (2021), discussed below.
The UK’s NDCU2 (2022) also extends the NDC’s territorial scope to Jersey. Yet, as Jersey has an emission-reduction target similar to that of the UK, this will not cause similar distortions. See Jersey Carbon Neutral Roadmap (2022), https://www.gov.je/Government/Pages/StatesReports.aspx?ReportID=5530.
Brazil’s NDCU2 (2022:9) re-introduced a strengthened supplementary goal of eliminating illegal deforestation by 2028.
Ação Popular No. 5008035–37.2021.4.03.6100 (filed 13 April 2021, request for preliminary injunction rejected on 28 May 2021); Ação Civil Pública No. 1027282–96.2021.4.01.3200 (filed 26 October 2021).
Greenpeace v Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático, reported at http://climatecasechart.com/non-us-case/greenpeace-v-instituto-nacional-de-ecologia-y-cambio-climatico-and-others/.
Abbreviations
- BAU:
-
Business as usual
- BUR:
-
Biennial update report
- GHGs:
-
Greenhouse gas emissions
- ICJ:
-
International court of justice
- ILC:
-
International Law Commission
- IPCC:
-
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- NC:
-
National Communication
- NDC:
-
Nationally Determined Contribution
- NDCU:
-
Update of a Nationally Determined Contribution
- PA:
-
Paris Agreement
- UNFCCC:
-
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
- UNSG:
-
United Nations Secretary General
- UNTS:
-
United Nations Treaty Series
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Acknowledgements
The author is grateful to Ratchapat Triteeyaputranonta, Jiaqi Yu, and Mingyao Zhu for research assistance.
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This research has been supported by a Direct Grant for Research from the Faculty of Law of The Chinese University of Hong Kong on “Assessing national ambition under the Paris Agreement”.
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Mayer, B. Progression requirements applicable to state action on climate change mitigation under Nationally Determined Contributions. Int Environ Agreements 23, 293–309 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-023-09614-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-023-09614-w