Abstract
Objectives
This study examines how confession (versus eyewitness) evidence and guilt status impacts mock defendants’ plea decisions and perceptions of their probability of conviction (PoC) and the strength of evidence (SoE), key elements of the shadow-of-the-trial model.
Methods
In a simulated mock-theft scenario, adult participants (n = 239) were randomly assigned to a guilt status (guilty/innocent) and evidence-type (confession/eyewitness) condition. They were offered a plea, and perceptions of PoC and SoE were measured.
Results
As predicted, confession evidence led to higher rates of pleas than eyewitness evidence. Guilty participants were also more likely to accept the plea than innocent participants. However, evidence type did not impact perceptions of PoC or SoE, though guilt status did.
Conclusions
Our findings empirically support the impact that confessions—true or false—and guilt status have on plea decision-making. We discuss implications of these results for the shadow-of-the-trial model and the cumulative-disadvantage framework.
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Data Availability
A data availability statement and link to OSF repository is currently present in the Current Study section.
Notes
None of the participant demographic variables significantly predicted plea decision (χ2[9] = 9.62, p = .38), perceived SoE (F[6, 202] = 1.56, p = .33, R2 = .03), or perceived PoC (F[6, 202] = 1.49, p = .19, R2 = .04). Therefore, no demographic variables were included as covariates in the primary analyses.
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DiFava, R.J., Bettens, T., Wilford, M.M. et al. Confession evidence results in more true and false guilty pleas than eyewitness evidence. J Exp Criminol (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-023-09577-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-023-09577-7