Abstract
We have systematically sorted out the seismic events of each secondary fault and its surroundings in the Zhangjiakou-Bohai tectonic belt and jointly carried out their seismicity characteristic study using the accelerating moment release (AMR) model, which fully reflects the release of energy before earthquakes; the Ogata-Katsura 1993 model, which can reflect the accumulated stress level; the moment ratio model, which reflects the frequency change; the region-time-length algorithm, which reflects the calm of regional seismicity. The results showed that the completeness magnitude of the earthquake sequence in the secondary fault area of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai tectonic belt does not change significantly with time but exhibits a small fluctuation change, and the minimum completeness magnitude measured comprehensively is 1.5. The calculated results of various seismicity models exhibited some differences among secondary faults. The AMR and seismic anomaly level of the Nankou-Sunhe fault and Liangxiang-Shunyi hidden fault are relatively high, the stress level of the Tangshan fault and Luanxian-Laoting fault is relatively high, and the seismic activity frequency of the Huaizhuo Basin northwest margin fault and Penglai-Weihai fault changes rapidly. Weighted by the calculation results of various seismicity models, the overall hazard level of each secondary fault in the Zhangjiakou-Bohai tectonic belt is low, and the Nankou-Sunhe fault, Penglai-Weihai fault, and Liangxiang-Shunyi hidden fault are the areas where strong earthquakes need to be focused on in the future.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bi, J. M., and Jiang, C. S., 2017. A review on the international research of the Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF): Earthquake Research in China (in Chinese), 33(1), 1–13.
Bormann, P., 2011. From earthquake prediction research to time-variable seismic hazard assessment applications: Pure and Applied Geophysics, 168(1), 329–366.
Bowman, D. D., Ouillon, G., Sammis, C. G., et al., 1998. An observational test of the critical earthquake concept: Journal of Geophysical Research, 103(B10), 24359–24372.
Brehm, D. J., and Braile, L. W., 1998. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction using precursory events in the New Madrid seismic zone: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 88, 564–580.
Bufe, C. G., and Varnes, D. J., 1993. Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco Bay region: Journal of Geophysical Research, 98, 9871–9883.
Chen, C., and Wu, Y., 2006. An improved region-time-length algorithm applied to the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake: Geophysical Journal International, 166, 144–147.
Cianchini, G., De Santis, A., Di Giovambattista, R., et al., 2020. Revised accelerated moment release under test: Fourteen worldwide real case studies in 2014–2018 and simulations: Pure and Applied Geophysics, 177(9), 4057–4087.
Darzi, A., Halldorsson, B., Hrafnkelsson, B., et al., 2022. Calibration of a Bayesian spatio-temporal ETAS model to the June 2000 South Iceland seismic sequence: Geophysical Journal International, 232(2), 1236–1258.
Deng, Q. D., Zhang, P. Z., Ran, Y. K., et al., 2003. Active tectonics and earthquake activities in China: Earth Science Frontiers (in Chinese), 10(U08), 66–73.
Di Giovambattista, R., and Tyupkin, Y. S., 2000. Spatial and temporal distribution of the seismicity before the Umbria-Marche September 26, 1997 earthquakes: Journal of Seismology, 4, 589–598.
Ebrahimian, H., and Jalayer, F., 2017. Robust seismicity forecasting based on Bayesian parameter estimation for epidemiological spatio-temporal aftershock clustering models: Scientific Reports, 7, 9803.
Falcone, G., I. Spassiani, Y. Ashkenazy, et al., 2021. An operational earthquake forecasting experiment for Israel: preliminary results: Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 729282.
Geller, R. J., Jackson, D. D., Kagan, Y. Y., et al., 1997. Enhanced: earthquakes cannot be predicted: Science, 275, 49–70.
Gentili, S., Peresan, A., Talebi, M., et al., 2019. A seismic quiescence before the 2017 MW 7.3 Sarpol Zahab (Iran) earthquake: Detection and analysis by improved RTL method: Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 290, 10–19.
Huang, Q., Sobolev, G. A., and Nagao T., 2001. Characteristics of the seismic quiescence and activation patterns before the M7.2 Kobe earthquake, January 17, 1995: Tectonophys, 337(1–2), 99–116.
Huang, Q., and Sobolev, G. A., 2002. Precursory seismicity changes associated with the Nemuro peninsula earthquake, January 28, 2000: Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 21(2), 135–146.
Huang, Q., 2006. Seismicity changes associated with the 2000 earthquake swarm in the Izu Island region: Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 26(5), 509–517.
Huang, Q., 2019. Seismicity pattern changes prior to the 2008 Ms7.3 Yutian earthquake: Entropy, 21(2), 118.
Iwata, T., 2013. Estimation of completeness magnitude considering daily variation in earthquake detection capability: Geophysical Journal International, 194(3), 1909–1919.
Jiang, C. S., and Wu Z. L., 2006. Benioff strain release before earthquakes in China: accelerating or not? Pure and Applied Geophysics, 163, 965–976.
Jiang, C. S., and Wu, Z. L., 2011. Intermediate-term medium-range Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) priori to the 2010 Yushu MS7.1 earthquake: Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 54(6), 1501–1510.
Jiang, C. S., Wu, Z. L., and Zhuang, J. C., 2013. ETAS model applied to the Earthquake-Sequence Association (ESA) problem: the Tangshan sequence: Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 56(9), 2971–2981.
Jiang, C. S., Han, L. B., Long, F., et al., 2021. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of b values revealed by a data-driven approach for June 17, 2019 MS6.0, Changning Sichuan, China earthquake sequence: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 21: 2233–2244.
Jiang, H. K., Hou, H. F., Zhou H. P., et al., 2004. Application study on Region Time Length algorithm for the site judgment of coming moderately strong earthquakes in North China area: Earthquake (in Chinese), 24(4), 17–26.
Jordan, T. H., 2006. Earthquake predictability, brick by brick: Seismological Research Letters, 77, 3–6.
Kanamori, H., 1977. The energy release in great earthquakes: Journal of Geophysical Research, 82(20), 2981–2987.
Kanamori, H., 1981. The nature of seismicity patterns before large earthquakes. Earthquake Prediction: An International Review, AGU Monograph. AGU, Washington D.C, 1–19.
Mignan, A., and Woessner, J., 2012. Estimating the magnitude of completeness for earthquake catalogs: Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, 1–45.
Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., Savran, W. H., et al., 2020. Operational earthquake forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS model: Seismological Research Letters, 91(3), 1567–1578.
Mori, J., and Abercrombie, R. E., 1997. Depth dependence of earthquake frequency-magnitude distributions in California: Implications for rupture initiation: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 102(B7), 15081–15090.
Ogata, Y., and Katsura, K., 1993. Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues: Geophysical Research Letters, 113(3), 727–738.
Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y., et al., 2013. Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock: Scientific Reports, 3(1), 2218.
Papazachos, B. C., Karakaisis, G. F., Papazachos, C. B., et al., 2007. Evaluation of the results for an intermediate-term prediction of the 8 January 2006 MW6.9 Cythera Earthquake in Southwestern Aegean: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 97, 347–352.
Reverso, T., Steacy, S., and Marsan, D., 2018. A hybrid ETAS-Coulomb approach to forecast spatiotemporal aftershock rates: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 123, 9750–9763, doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JB015108.
Schorlemmer, D., Wiemer, S. and Wyss, M., 2005. Variations in earthquake-size distribution across different stress regimes: Nature, 437(7058), 539–542.
Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., et al., 2018. The collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability: Achievements and priorities: Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1305–1313.
Shearer, P. M., and Lin, G., 2009. Evidence for Mogi doughnut behavior in seismicity preceding small earthquakes in southern California: Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, B01318.
Si, Z. Y., and Jiang, C. S., 2019. Research on parameter calculation for the Ogata-Katsura 1993 model in terms of the frequency-magnitude distribution based on a data-driven approach: Seismological Research Letters, 90(3), 1318–1329.
Sobolev, G. A., and Tyupkin, Y. S., 1997. Low-seismicity precursors of large earthquakes in Kamchatka: Volcanology and Seismology, 18, 433–446.
Sornette, D., and Sammis, C. G., 1995. Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes: Implications for earthquake predictions: Journal de Physique I, 5(5), 607–619.
Talbi, A., Nanjo, K., Zhuang, J. C., et al., 2013. Interevent times in a new alarm-based earthquake forecasting model: Geophysical Journal International, 194(3), 1823–1835.
Talbi, A., Bellalem, F., and Mobarki, M., 2019. Turkey and adjacent area seismicity forecasts from earthquake interevent time mean ratio statistics: Journal of Seismology, 23(3), 441–453.
Toda, S., Stein, R. S., Reasenberg, P. A., et al., 1998. Stress transferred by the 1995 MW6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 103(B10), 24543–24565.
Wiemer, S., and Wyss, M., 2000. Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the western United States, and Japan: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 90(4), 859–869.
Wyss, M., 1973. Towards a physical understanding of the earthquake frequency distribution: Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, 31(4), 341–359.
Wyss, M., 1997a. Cannot earthquakes be predicted? Science, 278, 487–490.
Wyss, M., 1997b. Nomination of precursory seismic quiescence as a significant precursor: Pure and Applied Geophysics, 149, 79–114.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the Key Project of Tianjin Earthquake Agency (No. Zd202206), the Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin (No. 22JCQNJC01070), and the Open Fund of Earthquake Prediction (No. XH23072D). The study used the National Unified Official Catalogue provided by the China Earthquake Networks Center. We extend our gratitude to Prof. Jiang Changsheng at the Institute of Geophysics, CEA and Prof. Liu Yue at the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, CEA, for their procedural and technical support. We are grateful to the teams of the Earthquake Early Risk Warning and Monitoring New Technologies, the Tianjin and Its Surrounding Earthquake Risk Forecast for their technical support and discussions. Additionally, we also thank anonymous reviewers whose comments and editing helped improve the paper greatly.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Bi Jin-Meng received his double BS and BE (2014) in geophysics and automation from Shandong University of Science and Technology and his MS (2017) in solid geophysics from the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. In July 2017, he joined the Tianjin Seismological Station (formerly Tianjin Monitoring and Forecasting Center) of Tianjin Earthquake Agency. Since September 2022, he has been pursuing a doctor’s degree in the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. His main interests are seismicity and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bi, JM., Cao, FY. & Meng, LQ. Seismicity characteristics of secondary faults in the Zhangjiakou-Bohai tectonic zone. Appl. Geophys. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11770-023-1018-y
Received:
Revised:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11770-023-1018-y