Abstract
In recent years, a sustainable increase in cereal crop yields in Russia can be observed. A positive trend in meteorological conditions is often considered as the reason for this phenomenon, while it is not actually supported by any solid scientific evidence. The objective of the surveys is to analyze the potential cereal-crop yield changes under climate impacts in Russia over the period from 2000 to 2022. In order to achieve the objective, the WOFOST crop growth simulation model allowing us to comprehensively assess the impact of all the meteorological parameters was used. The assessment for a set of 42 representative points in different regions of Russia was performed taking into account daily meteorological parameters and soil types. Simulation at the level of the potential crop yield was based only on the inputs of meteorological parameter variables since the impacts of the other factors on the crop yield were considered as absent. The potential yield trends in different regions of Russia are multidirectional. The trend in meteorological conditions favorable for cereal crops was recorded in the North Caucasus, the lower Volga River surrounding region, the western Siberia region, and the Far East. However, a tendency to decline in the potential crop yields is observed in the Central and Central-Chernozem, upper Volga River, and southern Middle Siberia regions over recent years. Overall, the cereal crop yield growth tends to match well with a trend in agrometeorological condition changes in most cereal producing regions in Russia over the recent years. Unidirectional trends in the simulated potential crop yields under the projected meteorological conditions and the crop yield statistics are not observed only in the regions of Central European Russia. Since the role of a climate factor on variation in cereal-crop yields is less significant there, the impact of government measures to maintain sustainable agricultural development may be assumed.
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The survey was carried out according to the State Task of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Agreement no. 075-15-2022-321 as of April 21, 2022).
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Translated by O. Zhiryakova
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Savin, I.Y. Insights on Current Climate Change Impact on Cereal Crop Yield Increases in Russia. Russ. Agricult. Sci. 49, 305–309 (2023). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068367423030151
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068367423030151