A fuzzy logic evolution of the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) to assess risk in ground operation

The basis of safe flight is the management of risks. This paper aims to present a new process-based risk assessment model, with an approach to calculate the risk score.

Since thousands of minor changes occur within ground operations, it is difficult to calculate how much risk these variations will pose. This paper proposes a risk assessment model fed from analysis of ground operation processes using functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) and fuzzy logic.

FRAM is used to detect variations in ground operation. Using the FRAM analysis, it has been revealed how much risk the process steps described in the procedures involve. The risk score was calculated by combining the probability value obtained from the airline’s database and the severity assessment of the expert group in fuzzy logic. The risk level can be monitored dynamically with the transfer of events in the airline’s database to the process-based risk assessment model.

FRAM analysis, which is used to detect function variations before undesirable risk occurs, has brought a proactive approach to risk assessment. The process-based risk assessment model allows the creation of new safety parameter indicators to be followed to reduce the risk level of the function with a high-risk level. The proposed approach can be used for other operational areas in aviation as well.