The growth of the Indian agro-based industry and its emissions: industrial relevance of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis

The modernization of the agro-based industry has encouraged the application of inorganic fertilizers to increase productivity. However, such fertilizer emissions may pose harmful environmental effects in the long run. This study aims to empirically explore the matter by applying the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in the Indian agro-based industry.

The study builds two models considering nitrous oxide emission levels from inorganic (synthetic) and organic (manure) fertilizers to evaluate the safer option for the environment. The validity of an industry-specific EKC (IEKC) is tested for the models considering time series data from 1975 to 2019. Here, the autoregressive distributed lag model is applied for the 45 years long time series analysis to test the hypothesis with respect to inorganic and organic fertilizers emissions.

The existence of the IEKC is rejected by the inorganic fertilizer emissions model. Its U-shaped curve implies that applying such fertilizers will gradually cause degrading environmental effects. On the other hand, the organic fertilizer emissions model supports the existence of an inverted U-shaped IEKC. It proves that organic fertilizers are a better choice for safeguarding the environment in the long run.

Applying the EKC hypothesis on an industrial level can signify whether an industry worsens the environment in the long run. However, very few studies have explored such an application of the hypothesis in the past. Moreover, the literature could not find any previous study exploring the environmental effects of inorganic and organic fertilizers by analyzing the EKC hypothesis. The hypothesis can offer such insights with simplified empirical assessment.